Hawthorn v Adelaide
2026-05-21 19:30:00 +10:00
York Park

10.15

75

9.12

66

Hawthorn won by 9 points

IN

Nairn

Macdonald

Chol

Nash

Morrison

Dear

Hustwaite

Ramsden

OUT

IN

Ah Chee

Thilthorpe

Cumming

Pedlar

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		65%	12 points	✓	3.2	0.38
Aggregate		64%	12 points	✓	3.1	0.35
		82%	27 points	✓	18.0	0.71
		74%	17 points	✓	8.5	0.57
		72%	17 points	✓	8.2	0.53
		72%	20 points	✓	11.0	0.53
		72%	19 points	✓	9.8	0.52
		70%	17 points	✓	8.1	0.49
		70%	20 points	✓	11.0	0.48
		69%	17 points	✓	8.1	0.47
		68%	18 points	✓	9.0	0.44
		67%	14 points	✓	5.1	0.42
		67%	15 points	✓	6.3	0.42
		66%	11 points	✓	1.5	0.39
		64%	14 points	✓	4.8	0.37
		64%	12 points	✓	3.3	0.36
		63%	10 points	✓	0.8	0.33
Punters		63%	10 points	✓	0.9	0.32
		62%	13 points	✓	3.5	0.31
		62%	10 points	✓	1.0	0.30
		61%	13 points	✓	4.0	0.29
		59%	7 points	✓	1.9	0.24
		59%	14 points	✓	5.3	0.24
		59%	9 points	✓	0.0	0.24
		59%	7 points	✓	2.3	0.23
		59%	11 points	✓	2.0	0.23
		55%	4 points	✓	4.6	0.15
		53%	1 point	✓	8.0	0.08
		52%	2 points	✓	7.5	0.06
		51%	1 point	✓	8.0	0.03
		50%	0 points	✓	8.9	0.01

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.