LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Sydney Port Adelaide Geelong Greater Western Sydney Brisbane Lions Western Bulldogs Hawthorn Carlton Collingwood Fremantle Essendon St Kilda Gold Coast Melbourne Adelaide West Coast North Melbourne Richmond
AFL Lab 131.9 2.6 3.4 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.8 7.5 8.5 9.0 10.0 6.5 4.7 6.2 4.9 4.8 4.8 1.9 5.3 6.0 5.0 5.8 6.2 5.3 -2.1 5.8 8.9 8.8 6.0
Live Ladders 131.4 3.0 3.4 4.0 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.6 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.7 6.7 7.4 8.6 9.0 10.0 7.6 4.1 6.4 5.7 4.9 4.7 -0.6 5.0 5.5 4.7 5.7 6.0 5.1 -1.5 6.5 9.2 8.6 7.2
Squiggle 121.0 3.4 2.9 3.3 2.8 3.3 3.5 4.1 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.2 6.3 7.1 8.6 9.0 10.0 7.0 1.3 6.6 4.7 4.3 5.9 0.1 4.7 6.3 3.5 5.4 6.1 4.4 -4.2 6.6 8.9 8.7 6.7
PlusSixOne 120.8 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.4 6.9 8.5 8.6 10.0 5.9 0.6 5.9 4.0 4.9 5.6 1.9 5.0 6.0 4.2 5.8 6.2 5.9 -2.1 5.2 8.4 8.4 5.1
Wheelo Ratings 120.6 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.2 3.8 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.5 5.0 4.3 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.9 6.0 6.9 8.5 9.0 10.0 7.4 0.4 6.2 5.3 4.5 5.4 0.3 4.0 5.9 3.9 6.0 6.2 3.6 -3.0 6.3 8.9 8.8 6.8
Matter of Stats 119.8 2.6 2.8 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.4 5.0 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1 6.3 7.1 8.6 9.0 10.0 7.0 0.7 5.8 5.3 5.3 5.1 0.4 4.1 6.0 3.7 5.3 6.0 4.4 -2.8 6.1 8.9 8.3 6.6
Winnable 119.5 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.2 3.6 3.7 4.1 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.7 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.9 6.1 6.9 8.4 9.0 10.0 6.9 0.5 6.0 3.7 5.6 5.3 1.1 4.1 5.5 4.1 5.5 5.9 4.0 -2.3 6.1 9.0 8.6 6.4
AFLalytics 119.0 3.2 3.2 3.7 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.2 6.5 7.4 8.4 8.7 10.0 7.4 1.9 6.4 5.4 3.4 4.0 -0.1 4.3 5.9 3.6 4.6 6.0 4.2 -2.6 6.9 9.0 8.7 6.8
Stattraction 118.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.2 4.0 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.8 4.9 5.2 6.2 7.2 8.4 8.7 10.0 6.7 2.1 7.1 5.6 5.7 4.7 -2.7 2.7 6.3 3.6 6.4 6.2 4.5 -4.2 5.4 8.8 8.9 7.2
Don't Blame the Data 117.0 3.3 3.7 4.3 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.5 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.2 3.5 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.1 6.8 7.7 9.2 10.0 8.1 4.3 7.2 3.9 4.7 4.2 -1.4 5.2 5.8 4.3 1.6 5.9 4.6 -6.0 7.2 9.2 8.7 6.9
Glicko Ratings 116.4 3.4 3.2 4.0 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.4 4.8 6.3 7.0 8.5 8.9 10.0 8.3 0.3 5.6 6.0 2.6 5.1 1.0 2.9 6.5 4.4 3.1 6.2 4.8 -3.3 6.7 9.0 8.8 6.0
ZaphBot 116.3 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.1 3.2 4.0 4.6 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.9 3.8 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.2 6.4 7.2 8.4 8.7 10.0 7.5 0.5 6.5 6.6 4.2 5.7 -2.9 3.0 5.6 3.5 5.9 6.5 6.1 -5.2 5.7 8.6 9.0 6.9
The Footycast 114.9 2.6 3.0 3.4 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.0 4.8 5.1 5.6 6.5 7.4 8.3 8.6 10.0 7.5 0.8 6.5 6.3 2.9 5.0 -1.9 3.8 5.9 3.6 4.4 6.5 4.8 -4.0 6.4 8.9 8.8 6.6
What Snoo Thinks 111.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.2 4.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.4 4.0 4.7 4.7 3.8 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.8 7.0 8.5 9.1 10.0 7.6 1.3 4.5 4.0 4.8 4.9 -0.7 3.2 5.8 3.0 5.4 6.4 3.5 -4.2 5.9 9.0 8.7 7.1
Elo Predicts! 105.8 2.2 3.1 3.4 3.1 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.1 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.3 5.5 7.1 8.8 8.8 10.0 8.0 -2.7 7.0 6.8 6.9 4.6 -6.4 2.7 3.6 4.2 6.6 6.2 6.8 -7.7 6.9 8.9 8.4 5.4
Informed Stats 101.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 2.8 3.6 3.6 4.1 3.5 4.1 4.1 5.5 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.9 7.5 8.0 8.5 10.0 8.5 1.4 6.8 3.5 6.3 5.3 -1.1 1.8 4.5 3.4 6.4 5.3 5.5 -2.8 7.8 9.1 8.6 7.1
FMI 43.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 10.0 0.3 -10.5 1.9 6.6 7.2 4.1 -4.4 6.5 3.7 6.9 4.1 3.3 6.9 -11.6 -5.6 8.3 4.0 -0.2
Ladder 42.0 -3.7 -1.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.5 1.5 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.8 -0.1 0.5 1.8 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.4 7.4 8.7 10.0 8.4 0.8 4.5 4.0 -5.3 -0.7 -7.9 1.2 2.4 -0.8 -3.1 4.2 1.8 -7.5 6.8 8.5 8.2 6.0

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 22
10.00000000 Don't Blame the Data West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 22
10.00000000 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 22
10.00000000 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 22
10.00000000 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 23
10.00000000 Live Ladders Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 23
10.00000000 Live Ladders West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 23
10.00000000 The Footycast Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 23
10.00000000 The Footycast West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 23
10.00000000 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 23
10.00000000 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 23
10.00000000 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 23
10.00000000 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 23
10.00000000 Stattraction Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 23
10.00000000 Stattraction West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 23
10.00000000 AFL Lab Adelaide
1
2
3
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8
9
10
11
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13
14
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18
 15th 23
10.00000000 AFL Lab West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
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17
18
 16th 23
10.00000000 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
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5
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7
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9
10
11
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13
14
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18
 15th 23
10.00000000 ZaphBot North Melbourne
1
2
3
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5
6
7
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9
10
11
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16
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18
 17th 23
10.00000000 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 18th 23
10.00000000 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
3
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9
10
11
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18
 1st 23
10.00000000 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 23
10.00000000 Squiggle Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 15th 23
10.00000000 Squiggle Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 23
10.00000000 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 23
10.00000000 Don't Blame the Data Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 15th 23

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-21.1 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4
-20.8 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 8
-20.1 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 3
-19.8 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 9
-18.8 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 7
-18.6 What Snoo Thinks Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4
-18.6 Informed Stats Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
11
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13
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18
 14th 4
-17.9 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 1
-17.9 What Snoo Thinks Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 14th 3
-17.8 Don't Blame the Data Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4
-17.7 The Footycast Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 14th 4
-17.5 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 6
-17.4 Informed Stats Melbourne
1
2
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10
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18
 14th 8
-17.0 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
11
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13
14
15
16
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18
 14th 8
-16.8 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4
-16.7 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 2
-16.7 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 14th 11
-16.7 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
2
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18
 14th 4
-16.6 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 5
-16.6 Don't Blame the Data Melbourne
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
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13
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18
 14th 8
-16.5 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
2
3
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9
10
11
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13
14
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18
 14th 7
-16.4 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 7th 6
-16.4 The Footycast Melbourne
1
2
3
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10
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 14th 3
-16.2 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
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18
 14th 8
-16.1 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
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6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 7th 7

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
62.1 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4
61.7 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 8
60.2 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 3
59.5 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 9
57.5 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 14th 7
57.2 What Snoo Thinks Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 14th 4
57.2 Informed Stats Melbourne
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
11
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15
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18
 14th 4
55.9 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
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8
9
10
11
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13
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18
 14th 1
55.9 What Snoo Thinks Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 14th 3
55.6 Don't Blame the Data Melbourne
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
11
12
13
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18
 14th 4
55.5 The Footycast Melbourne
1
2
3
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5
6
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10
11
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18
 14th 4
55.1 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
14
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18
 14th 6
54.8 Informed Stats Melbourne
1
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 14th 8
53.9 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
2
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 14th 8
53.6 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
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10
11
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18
 14th 4
53.4 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 14th 2
53.4 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
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8
9
10
11
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13
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18
 14th 11
53.4 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
2
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 14th 4
53.3 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
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8
9
10
11
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13
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17
18
 14th 5
53.1 Don't Blame the Data Melbourne
1
2
3
4
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10
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13
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18
 14th 8
53.0 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
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 14th 7
52.8 The Footycast Melbourne
1
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18
 14th 3
52.5 Stattraction Melbourne
1
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 14th 8
52.2 What Snoo Thinks Melbourne
1
2
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 14th 1
52.2 What Snoo Thinks Melbourne
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 14th 2
52.1 Stattraction Melbourne
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 14th 3

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-52.8 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 6
-52.2 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 7
-51.7 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 3
-51.6 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 5
-51.2 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 4
-50.8 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 1
-50.6 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 2
-49.9 The Footycast Hawthorn
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 7th 5
-49.7 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
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 2nd 15
-49.2 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 7th 5
-49.1 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 7th 7
-48.9 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 0
-48.5 The Footycast Hawthorn
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 7th 7
-48.4 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 8
-48.3 Stattraction Hawthorn
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 7th 7
-47.6 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
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 3rd 0
-47.5 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 10
-47.1 Stattraction Hawthorn
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 7th 5
-46.7 What Snoo Thinks Hawthorn
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 7th 5
-46.6 What Snoo Thinks Hawthorn
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 7th 7
-46.0 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
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 2nd 16
-45.7 Informed Stats Hawthorn
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 7th 4
-45.6 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 7th 9
-45.3 Informed Stats Hawthorn
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 7th 5
-45.0 Live Ladders Hawthorn
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 7th 7