LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fremantle Sydney Hawthorn Geelong Melbourne Adelaide Brisbane Lions Western Bulldogs Gold Coast St Kilda Greater Western Sydney North Melbourne Collingwood Carlton Port Adelaide West Coast Richmond Essendon
Live Ladders 109.0 3.8 4.3 5.6 5.2 5.3 6.3 6.0 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.7 7.2 7.6 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.4 2.7 6.0 8.4 8.3 2.7 6.2 7.1 5.5 5.7 7.1 6.8 7.1 1.8 7.6 6.9 9.0 8.7 7.8
Winnable 109.0 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.7 5.1 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.4 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.1 8.1 8.1 3.5 6.6 7.3 7.3 1.3 7.4 6.2 5.2 6.1 7.3 7.3 7.5 3.4 6.7 7.1 8.8 8.5 8.0
AFLalytics 108.0 3.7 3.6 4.6 4.5 4.9 6.1 6.1 6.7 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.8 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.4 4.1 6.5 7.5 6.7 3.5 6.5 6.9 5.1 5.6 7.1 6.9 7.5 3.1 7.2 6.2 8.4 8.4 7.2
ZaphBot 106.9 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.7 8.7 3.9 6.3 7.6 7.5 3.8 6.6 7.0 3.3 5.3 6.1 6.6 7.3 2.6 7.4 7.0 8.4 8.9 7.8
PlusSixOne 105.6 3.8 3.4 4.2 4.3 4.7 5.4 5.8 6.4 6.4 6.6 7.1 7.5 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 5.6 6.1 7.1 7.2 0.2 7.0 6.9 5.8 6.5 6.9 5.9 7.4 2.1 7.2 6.0 8.2 8.6 7.2
AFL Lab 101.7 3.6 4.3 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.1 6.0 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.3 1.8 4.8 7.7 7.9 3.6 6.8 5.7 5.7 6.8 7.3 6.8 7.3 3.2 7.6 6.4 8.8 8.8 7.4
Stattraction 101.0 3.8 3.8 4.7 4.6 5.0 5.7 6.0 6.7 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.4 8.0 8.0 8.4 8.6 3.1 6.2 6.9 7.7 4.5 6.6 5.9 3.6 5.0 6.8 7.1 7.5 1.4 7.9 7.7 8.9 8.9 7.9
Squiggle 100.9 2.9 2.8 4.3 3.8 4.2 5.5 5.5 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.6 7.6 8.0 8.2 8.3 3.2 6.9 7.7 6.9 -0.5 6.5 6.9 3.8 5.2 7.1 7.2 7.4 3.0 6.7 5.9 8.1 8.7 6.3
Wheelo Ratings 99.6 3.9 3.8 4.8 4.6 4.9 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.8 7.8 8.2 8.4 3.2 5.8 7.8 6.9 2.5 6.6 6.9 4.3 5.2 7.1 6.6 7.5 3.4 7.5 6.4 8.4 8.4 7.4
What Snoo Thinks 97.6 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.6 5.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.6 7.6 8.0 7.9 7.9 2.7 4.4 7.7 7.7 4.9 6.5 7.0 2.5 5.7 7.6 6.9 7.5 -1.5 8.0 8.0 8.8 7.9 7.4
Matter of Stats 97.6 3.8 3.8 4.5 4.1 4.2 6.0 5.9 6.6 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.8 7.8 8.1 8.3 3.8 5.9 7.9 6.0 1.7 6.5 6.2 5.3 6.3 7.3 5.4 7.3 2.4 7.6 6.0 8.7 8.3 7.2
The Footycast 96.8 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.8 6.0 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.4 7.1 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.5 3.2 3.7 8.1 7.6 2.7 6.7 5.2 5.0 7.1 6.5 5.6 7.7 1.3 7.4 6.4 8.7 8.9 7.2
Don't Blame the Data 93.6 3.2 2.5 3.7 3.6 4.1 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.8 7.8 8.2 8.4 2.5 4.4 7.7 8.1 -0.9 7.5 7.0 2.5 5.5 6.9 7.2 6.9 -2.3 8.3 7.3 9.1 9.0 8.5
Glicko Ratings 91.7 3.2 3.0 4.0 3.9 4.2 5.3 5.2 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.6 8.0 2.8 5.3 7.7 7.7 -0.5 5.4 6.3 2.8 4.5 7.2 4.9 7.6 2.6 7.7 8.2 8.7 8.7 5.7
Graft 91.6 2.6 2.4 3.3 3.5 3.8 5.3 5.8 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.9 7.1 7.7 7.6 8.0 8.2 3.1 4.2 7.1 8.1 -0.1 6.9 7.4 3.0 4.9 7.1 6.4 6.8 -1.0 7.9 7.2 8.8 8.8 6.6
Informed Stats 89.3 2.3 3.6 3.4 4.1 5.8 5.4 6.6 5.9 5.9 6.9 7.5 8.0 7.6 7.9 8.4 4.5 4.1 8.0 7.0 1.8 7.7 6.3 3.6 4.7 5.9 6.7 7.2 -2.5 8.5 8.1 8.9 8.9 7.8
Elo Predicts! 70.0 0.1 -0.1 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.2 4.5 5.9 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.0 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.7 0.5 2.8 7.1 8.2 -6.3 8.3 4.0 2.3 6.1 5.9 3.9 4.0 -5.5 8.2 6.1 7.5 9.2 6.4
Ladder 52.8 -3.7 -2.1 -1.8 -2.4 -1.4 2.8 3.1 2.5 3.5 5.8 5.8 7.1 7.1 7.4 9.3 10.0 2.8 8.0 6.3 0.8 3.2 0.6 2.3 1.7 -2.7 4.1 3.2 0.1 0.6 5.4 2.8 5.2 7.6 7.2

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99962353 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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13
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18
 16th 14
9.99825294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 16th 13
9.98902776 Informed Stats West Coast
1
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 16th 14
9.96874706 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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 16th 12
9.96827012 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
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8
9
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 1st 14
9.93682376 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
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8
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 1st 13
9.93150200 Informed Stats Essendon
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 18th 14
9.93136706 Informed Stats Richmond
1
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9
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 17th 14
9.92099706 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
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 15th 12
9.91943162 Don't Blame the Data Essendon
1
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 18th 14
9.91563635 Don't Blame the Data Richmond
1
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 17th 14
9.91468559 Don't Blame the Data West Coast
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 16th 14
9.90310415 Live Ladders West Coast
1
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9
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 16th 14
9.89044412 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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2
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 18th 12
9.89036765 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
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 17th 12
9.88947318 Informed Stats Sydney
1
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9
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 2nd 13
9.88689447 Graft West Coast
1
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9
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 16th 14
9.88457059 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
2
3
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
 17th 1
9.87847974 Matter of Stats West Coast
1
2
3
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9
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 16th 14
9.86984356 Don't Blame the Data Essendon
1
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 18th 13
9.86904665 Don't Blame the Data Richmond
1
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 17th 13
9.86427059 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
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 15th 11
9.85777235 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
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 16th 13
9.85344118 ZaphBot Fremantle
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9
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 1st 13
9.85328671 Stattraction West Coast
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2
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9
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 16th 14
9.84106471 Informed Stats Sydney
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8
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 2nd 14

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-13.5 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-13.0 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
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6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 3
-12.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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18
 1st 0
-12.7 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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14
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18
 1st -1
-12.4 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
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5
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8
9
10
11
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18
 1st 2
-12.3 Graft Sydney
1
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 2nd -1
-10.8 Live Ladders Sydney
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2
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7
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 2nd -1
-10.7 Don't Blame the Data Collingwood
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 13th 0
-10.2 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 2
-10.1 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 3
-10.0 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th 5
-9.9 Informed Stats Collingwood
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 13th 7
-9.8 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 1st 1
-9.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
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 2nd 0
-9.6 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
1
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 2nd 0
-9.6 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd -1
-9.4 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th -1
-9.3 Squiggle Melbourne
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 5th 2
-9.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 0
-9.3 Informed Stats Collingwood
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 13th 0
-9.2 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 2
-8.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 2nd -1
-8.8 Don't Blame the Data Collingwood
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 13th -1
-8.7 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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 5th -1
-8.5 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
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18
 8th 4

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
41.4 Don't Blame the Data Collingwood
1
2
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 13th 0
40.4 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 2
39.7 Informed Stats Collingwood
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 13th 7
38.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 0
38.6 Informed Stats Collingwood
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 13th 0
37.6 Don't Blame the Data Collingwood
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 13th -1
37.1 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 8th 4
37.0 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 8th 2
36.7 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 8th 3
36.6 Informed Stats Collingwood
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 13th 8
36.0 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 3
35.5 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th -1
35.0 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 11th 0
34.7 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 7
34.7 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 11
34.4 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 4
34.4 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 8th 1
34.0 Informed Stats Collingwood
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 13th 3
33.7 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 8
33.6 Graft Collingwood
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 13th -1
33.2 Graft Collingwood
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 13th 0
32.9 Don't Blame the Data Collingwood
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 13th 1
32.9 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 13th 1
32.9 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 11th -1
32.5 Don't Blame the Data Collingwood
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 13th 3
32.3 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
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 8th 2

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-47.0 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
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 5th 0
-46.1 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
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 1st 3
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 0
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st -1
-44.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 2
-44.6 Graft Sydney
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 2nd -1
-41.5 Live Ladders Sydney
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 2nd -1
-40.1 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 3
-40.0 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th 5
-39.6 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 1st 1
-39.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd -1
-38.8 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th -1
-38.7 Squiggle Melbourne
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 5th 2
-38.4 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 2
-37.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 2nd -1
-37.5 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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 5th -1
-36.7 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th 1
-36.7 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th 2
-36.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd -1
-36.3 Squiggle Melbourne
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 5th 0
-36.1 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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 5th 0
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd 0
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd -1