LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Fremantle Sydney Hawthorn Adelaide Brisbane Lions Melbourne Geelong Western Bulldogs Collingwood Carlton St Kilda Greater Western Sydney North Melbourne Gold Coast Port Adelaide West Coast Richmond Essendon
Winnable 153.5 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.7 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.7 9.1 5.2 7.4 7.8 6.0 7.7 4.6 6.0 6.2 7.4 5.5 7.6 7.3 8.0 -0.1 7.4 9.1 8.8 8.4
Stattraction 148.9 4.0 3.6 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.7 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.2 8.7 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.9 5.2 7.3 7.7 4.8 7.6 6.8 5.4 5.3 7.7 3.4 8.0 7.0 8.4 -2.8 8.2 9.3 9.0 8.3
PlusSixOne 147.9 3.9 3.3 4.1 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.8 8.7 9.2 6.8 7.0 7.6 5.9 7.3 3.6 6.3 6.4 7.0 3.9 7.6 5.9 7.5 0.9 6.7 8.7 8.9 7.7
Informed Stats 146.8 2.5 3.4 3.2 3.6 5.5 5.4 6.0 6.4 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.0 6.8 7.5 8.4 8.6 8.6 9.0 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.4 6.3 5.7 8.5 7.3 7.1 5.4 6.3 5.2 7.4 3.6 7.6 6.2 8.7 -0.4 8.3 9.2 9.2 8.5
Wheelo Ratings 146.2 3.8 3.4 4.3 3.9 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.7 9.0 5.2 7.0 8.2 5.0 7.2 5.5 6.0 5.7 7.4 3.8 7.6 6.4 8.0 -1.4 7.0 8.9 8.7 8.0
Live Ladders 144.6 3.6 3.8 4.9 4.1 4.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.4 6.3 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.6 8.8 8.9 8.7 9.1 4.6 7.0 8.6 4.4 7.0 5.6 4.3 6.4 7.5 3.5 8.0 6.3 8.2 -2.0 7.4 9.2 8.9 8.2
Squiggle 142.0 3.2 2.7 3.9 3.4 3.6 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.6 7.2 7.6 7.9 7.9 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.7 9.1 4.9 7.6 8.1 4.7 7.2 3.4 6.0 5.1 7.3 4.4 7.6 7.3 7.9 -1.5 6.5 8.6 8.9 7.1
AFL Lab 141.0 3.8 4.0 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.6 6.7 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.0 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.7 4.0 6.1 8.1 5.0 7.7 6.0 4.7 6.5 7.3 4.3 7.7 6.6 8.1 0.3 7.0 9.1 8.9 7.9
Graft 140.2 2.5 2.0 2.9 2.9 3.2 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.5 6.5 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.7 9.1 5.2 5.9 7.7 7.1 6.6 4.1 4.4 4.8 7.2 3.6 8.0 6.2 8.3 -2.5 7.7 9.1 9.0 7.4
AFLalytics 138.8 3.7 3.2 4.1 3.9 4.2 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.7 8.2 8.2 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.7 5.4 7.2 7.9 4.8 6.9 5.9 6.2 6.0 7.2 3.8 7.5 6.7 7.6 -1.2 6.7 8.8 8.6 7.7
The Footycast 138.5 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.6 6.6 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.1 8.5 8.8 8.8 8.8 5.0 5.2 8.3 4.9 7.2 5.6 5.6 6.0 7.2 3.8 7.5 5.4 8.0 0.8 7.0 9.0 9.1 7.8
Matter of Stats 138.5 3.9 3.6 4.3 4.0 4.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.8 7.4 7.7 8.2 8.2 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.6 5.5 6.9 8.3 4.5 7.6 4.9 5.8 6.2 7.4 3.5 7.6 5.3 8.1 -0.4 6.6 9.0 8.6 7.8
ZaphBot 135.4 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.4 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.8 5.3 7.1 8.0 5.2 7.2 6.0 5.7 4.5 7.2 2.5 7.4 6.6 7.6 -2.8 7.6 8.7 9.0 8.1
Don't Blame the Data 130.9 3.1 2.1 3.1 2.9 3.2 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.5 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.8 4.5 5.8 8.2 5.3 7.9 3.3 3.8 3.9 7.1 1.8 8.3 6.3 8.5 -3.0 7.7 9.3 9.2 8.9
Glicko Ratings 123.1 3.0 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.8 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 8.7 8.7 8.7 4.7 6.4 8.0 2.3 7.2 3.5 5.5 4.3 7.4 3.6 7.9 3.3 8.2 -4.7 8.5 9.0 8.9 6.7
What Snoo Thinks 122.9 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 4.4 5.7 8.1 4.5 4.2 6.5 4.3 4.0 6.8 1.2 8.0 5.8 8.4 -4.9 8.3 8.9 8.4 7.9
Elo Predicts! 113.5 0.2 0.1 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 4.4 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.2 6.3 6.4 6.6 7.5 7.8 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.5 3.0 4.8 7.7 6.7 7.2 -0.7 4.5 4.1 6.6 1.3 8.4 3.1 6.8 -2.4 6.9 8.2 9.4 7.3
Ladder 79.5 -3.1 -1.8 -2.7 -3.1 -2.4 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.8 4.8 2.8 5.4 4.8 5.1 5.4 6.1 6.7 9.0 8.4 8.0 8.4 10.0 4.8 8.5 7.3 -1.5 1.6 5.9 2.6 3.4 5.3 -0.7 5.5 4.9 0.6 -10.3 4.8 6.5 8.0 7.7

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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8
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 16th 16
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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8
9
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 16th 17
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
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5
6
7
8
9
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11
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 16th 18
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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 16th 19
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
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11
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13
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18
 1st 20
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
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18
 16th 20
9.99999988 Informed Stats West Coast
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 16th 20
9.99999800 Informed Stats Fremantle
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 1st 19
9.99999800 Informed Stats Fremantle
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2
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 1st 20
9.99999706 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 19
9.99999706 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 1st 20
9.99999565 Informed Stats West Coast
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 16th 19
9.99999421 Stattraction Fremantle
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 1st 20
9.99997965 Informed Stats West Coast
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 16th 17
9.99997353 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 1st 19
9.99996765 Informed Stats West Coast
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9
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 16th 18
9.99995453 Stattraction Fremantle
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 1st 19
9.99992647 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 18th 18
9.99992647 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 17th 18
9.99976176 AFLalytics Fremantle
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 1st 20
9.99972894 Informed Stats Essendon
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 18th 18
9.99971147 Live Ladders Fremantle
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 1st 20
9.99970247 Informed Stats Richmond
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 17th 18
9.99968724 Matter of Stats Fremantle
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 1st 20
9.99966279 AFLalytics Fremantle
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 1st 19
9.99962353 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 16th 14

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-18.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-17.6 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 14th 3
-16.9 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 14th 3
-16.2 Graft Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-16.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 14th 0
-16.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-16.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 14th 1
-15.9 Graft Gold Coast
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 14th 3
-15.7 Stattraction Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-15.6 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
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 14th 3
-15.2 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-15.2 Squiggle Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-15.1 Stattraction Gold Coast
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 14th 3
-15.0 Squiggle Gold Coast
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 14th 3
-15.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
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 14th 3
-14.3 Graft Gold Coast
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 14th 0
-14.1 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-14.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
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 14th 0
-13.9 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
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 14th 3
-13.6 Graft Gold Coast
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 14th 1
-13.5 Live Ladders Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-13.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-13.2 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
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 14th 1
-13.1 Live Ladders Gold Coast
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 14th 3
-13.0 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 3

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
56.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 14th 2
55.3 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 14th 3
53.7 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 14th 3
52.5 Graft Gold Coast
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 14th 2
52.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 14th 0
52.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
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 14th 2
52.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 14th 1
51.9 Graft Gold Coast
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 14th 3
51.4 Stattraction Gold Coast
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 14th 2
51.1 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
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 14th 3
50.4 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
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 14th 2
50.3 Squiggle Gold Coast
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 14th 2
50.1 Stattraction Gold Coast
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 14th 3
50.0 Squiggle Gold Coast
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 14th 3
49.9 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
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 14th 3
48.6 Graft Gold Coast
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 14th 0
48.1 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
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 14th 2
47.9 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
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 14th 0
47.7 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
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 14th 3
47.3 Graft Gold Coast
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 14th 1
46.9 Live Ladders Gold Coast
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 14th 2
46.9 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 14th 2
46.5 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
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 14th 1
46.1 Live Ladders Gold Coast
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 14th 3
45.9 AFLalytics Gold Coast
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 14th 3
45.7 AFLalytics Gold Coast
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 14th 2

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-46.1 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 3
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 0
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st -1
-44.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 2
-44.6 Graft Sydney
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 2nd -1
-41.5 Live Ladders Sydney
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 2nd -1
-41.1 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 6th 0
-40.1 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 3
-39.6 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 1st 1
-39.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd -1
-38.4 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 2
-37.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 2nd -1
-36.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd -1
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd 0
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd -1
-35.6 Don't Blame the Data Fremantle
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 1st 1
-35.4 Informed Stats Fremantle
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 1st 1
-34.9 Graft Sydney
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 2nd 0
-34.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 4
-34.7 AFL Lab Sydney
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 2nd -1
-34.4 Don't Blame the Data Fremantle
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 1st 0
-34.3 AFL Lab Fremantle
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 1st -1
-34.1 Stattraction Sydney
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 2nd -1