LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 Western Bulldogs Gold Coast Sydney Hawthorn North Melbourne Melbourne Adelaide Collingwood Geelong Greater Western Sydney Carlton Richmond Fremantle St Kilda Brisbane Lions Port Adelaide Essendon West Coast
Ladder 16.9 -1.4 8.4 10.0 4.1 10.0 6.1 4.1 -0.8 1.2 4.1 6.1 10.0 3.1 9.0 5.1 10.0 3.1 1.2 10.0 5.1 10.0
AFLalytics 15.9 2.6 3.6 4.9 4.9 4.4 3.2 2.6 5.9 -1.8 3.9 6.3 6.2 5.4 5.4 5.9 5.3 2.6 5.8 -5.1 3.3 6.8 5.6
Winnable 14.7 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.7 1.8 4.1 5.7 -3.5 1.4 6.3 6.6 3.7 6.6 6.5 5.3 2.2 4.9 -10.8 5.8 8.1 6.9
Squiggle 12.2 1.2 2.6 4.2 4.2 7.2 3.4 3.6 6.4 -5.4 -4.0 6.6 6.6 4.8 6.4 6.0 2.7 2.9 5.6 -12.0 3.5 5.5 5.1
ZaphBot 11.7 0.2 2.7 4.4 4.4 7.0 2.5 1.7 6.9 -9.8 1.5 5.5 7.0 -0.0 3.9 6.6 -0.1 2.9 7.3 -8.7 4.9 6.9 6.5
Live Ladders 11.5 1.3 2.4 3.9 4.0 2.7 1.0 1.7 7.6 -12.7 4.6 6.3 6.7 -0.4 5.3 5.0 4.4 2.2 5.4 -9.9 6.2 8.1 7.5
Wheelo Ratings 10.3 2.5 3.4 4.5 5.2 2.9 1.1 6.4 -5.0 2.9 6.5 6.5 4.3 5.1 5.8 4.9 2.0 5.6 -9.8 4.1 7.2 5.9
What Snoo Thinks 9.9 2.7 2.7 4.4 8.0 1.4 -3.4 7.6 -12.1 6.5 4.4 6.0 0.2 6.3 3.4 5.7 1.1 4.8 -5.0 8.2 8.1 7.7
PlusSixOne 9.2 0.7 1.8 3.2 3.4 1.9 0.4 3.2 5.8 -7.5 -3.6 6.0 6.4 4.3 2.5 6.6 4.2 -2.2 6.5 -8.0 0.7 6.6 7.4
Stattraction 8.9 1.9 2.8 4.2 6.9 3.3 1.2 5.9 -11.8 4.8 6.9 7.0 2.9 5.3 6.8 1.2 1.0 7.1 -17.7 6.3 8.4 8.0
Matter of Stats 8.5 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.0 0.8 1.3 6.6 -7.4 3.2 6.6 6.6 4.9 3.5 5.8 5.0 1.5 5.9 -14.0 3.3 7.3 6.3
Glicko Ratings 8.1 1.8 2.4 3.9 7.1 5.0 1.2 6.6 -9.5 -1.5 6.5 7.0 2.3 2.5 7.0 1.4 0.8 6.2 -14.1 6.4 5.1 8.3
Don't Blame the Data 7.1 1.9 2.0 3.2 7.7 4.9 -1.0 6.4 -13.8 -0.6 7.1 4.6 -2.8 6.0 6.0 1.2 1.1 7.7 -14.1 4.7 8.8 8.5
Informed Stats 7.0 2.8 4.1 8.1 7.4 0.5 6.8 -10.3 1.4 3.7 5.9 6.2 3.6 6.7 -1.0 0.7 9.0 -11.8 7.1 9.1 9.5
AFL Lab 6.5 1.4 1.8 3.3 2.9 -3.2 -0.6 6.5 -7.8 5.0 6.5 6.6 -0.0 5.4 6.2 2.7 2.9 3.1 -16.8 4.6 7.1 7.8
Graft 5.7 0.9 1.7 3.1 6.6 5.0 -4.3 6.4 -14.8 -0.5 1.7 6.3 -1.1 3.1 6.3 -0.4 0.0 7.4 -7.7 4.4 7.2 8.7
The Footycast 5.5 1.4 1.4 2.6 3.7 -2.1 -3.6 7.8 -9.4 2.4 7.3 7.1 -0.2 3.0 7.2 1.5 0.3 7.2 -19.2 3.2 8.2 8.8
Elo Predicts! -0.4 -1.0 -0.4 1.1 6.5 1.8 -5.4 6.1 -19.8 -7.5 6.4 6.0 0.2 -1.7 6.8 -2.4 0.3 7.3 -24.0 -0.2 7.4 10.0

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99969412 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 0
9.99677059 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th -1
9.92138824 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 1
9.85692647 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
1
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 14th -1
9.75659024 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 0
9.58482059 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 1st 1
9.41555294 Informed Stats Essendon
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 17th 1
9.24030941 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 1
9.15368874 Don't Blame the Data Essendon
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 17th 1
9.10666412 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 14th 1
8.98679268 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
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 1st 1
8.92039118 The Footycast West Coast
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 18th 1
8.88620944 Don't Blame the Data Essendon
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 17th 0
8.82678400 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 14th 0
8.81536906 Informed Stats Essendon
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 17th 0
8.79786824 Graft West Coast
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 18th -1
8.78892232 Don't Blame the Data West Coast
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 18th 0
8.72768824 The Footycast West Coast
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 18th -1
8.72768824 The Footycast West Coast
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 18th 0
8.72460341 Graft West Coast
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 18th 0
8.66878853 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 1st 1
8.65286806 Live Ladders Essendon
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 17th 1
8.60145206 Winnable Essendon
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 17th 1
8.57240668 Stattraction Essendon
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 17th 1
8.56323947 Stattraction Essendon
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 17th -1
8.50200091 What Snoo Thinks Port Adelaide
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 16th 1

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-29.5 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
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8
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 15th -1
-24.0 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
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 15th 0
-22.3 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
-21.8 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-21.0 The Footycast Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
-21.0 The Footycast Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
-20.1 AFL Lab Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
-19.8 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-19.3 ZaphBot Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
-18.9 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
-18.4 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
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 15th 1
-18.4 Glicko Ratings Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
-18.2 AFL Lab Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
-18.0 Matter of Stats Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
-17.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 1
-17.5 ZaphBot North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-17.4 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
-17.3 Squiggle Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
-16.8 Informed Stats Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
-16.4 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-16.1 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-16.1 Don't Blame the Data Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
-15.9 Don't Blame the Data Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
-15.5 The Footycast Brisbane Lions
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 15th 1
-15.5 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
79.0 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
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3
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 15th -1
68.0 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
64.5 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
62.0 The Footycast Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
62.0 The Footycast Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
60.3 AFL Lab Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
58.6 ZaphBot Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
57.9 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
56.9 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
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 15th 1
56.8 Glicko Ratings Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
56.5 AFL Lab Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
56.0 Matter of Stats Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
54.9 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
54.6 Squiggle Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
53.6 Informed Stats Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
52.2 Don't Blame the Data Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
51.9 Don't Blame the Data Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
51.1 The Footycast Brisbane Lions
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 15th 1
50.9 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
49.6 Glicko Ratings Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
49.6 Squiggle Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
48.7 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
48.5 Winnable Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
46.4 Wheelo Ratings Brisbane Lions
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 15th -1
46.4 Matter of Stats Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0
45.3 Winnable Brisbane Lions
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 15th 0

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-63.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
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18
 5th -1
-59.7 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
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18
 5th 0
-55.2 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
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18
 5th 1
-54.9 ZaphBot North Melbourne
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18
 5th -1
-52.8 Graft North Melbourne
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18
 5th -1
-52.3 Graft North Melbourne
1
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 5th 0
-50.9 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-50.2 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-49.2 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-48.6 Stattraction North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-47.8 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-47.5 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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-47.5 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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-45.0 Stattraction North Melbourne
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-44.1 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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-43.6 Graft North Melbourne
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-43.4 Informed Stats North Melbourne
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-42.5 Glicko Ratings North Melbourne
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-42.2 PlusSixOne North Melbourne
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-42.2 Glicko Ratings North Melbourne
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-41.3 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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-41.1 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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-40.1 The Footycast North Melbourne
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-40.1 The Footycast North Melbourne
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-39.5 PlusSixOne North Melbourne
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