LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Fremantle Sydney Brisbane Lions Hawthorn Geelong Adelaide Melbourne Western Bulldogs Collingwood Carlton St Kilda Greater Western Sydney Gold Coast North Melbourne Port Adelaide West Coast Richmond Essendon
Winnable 187.1 4.8 4.5 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.1 10.0 5.7 7.7 6.4 8.0 7.8 7.8 6.1 6.4 7.5 6.0 7.9 7.6 2.6 7.6 7.7 9.2 8.9 8.6
AFL Lab 186.3 4.5 4.5 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.1 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.1 10.0 4.9 6.7 6.7 8.1 7.7 7.5 7.2 6.8 7.6 5.1 8.0 7.1 3.4 8.2 7.4 9.3 9.1 8.2
Stattraction 185.1 4.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.9 8.8 8.7 9.0 8.8 9.1 9.2 10.0 5.7 7.6 6.1 8.1 8.0 7.4 7.8 5.7 7.8 4.1 8.2 7.3 0.6 8.4 8.4 9.3 9.1 8.5
Matter of Stats 181.4 4.5 3.9 4.4 4.2 4.2 5.6 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.8 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.1 10.0 6.2 7.4 6.2 8.1 7.3 7.3 6.5 6.6 7.7 4.4 8.0 5.9 2.7 8.2 7.1 9.2 8.8 8.1
The Footycast 181.4 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.9 9.0 9.1 10.0 5.8 6.0 6.2 8.3 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.4 7.4 4.7 7.8 6.0 3.8 7.5 7.5 9.2 9.2 8.1
PlusSixOne 179.7 4.4 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.1 10.0 7.1 7.3 5.3 7.9 7.8 7.5 5.4 6.7 7.2 4.5 7.8 6.4 3.5 7.0 7.1 8.8 9.0 8.0
Live Ladders 178.5 4.3 4.3 4.9 4.4 4.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.7 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.1 10.0 5.2 7.3 4.3 8.0 7.6 7.1 7.0 6.6 7.6 4.3 8.2 6.7 1.1 8.1 7.7 9.3 9.0 8.4
Wheelo Ratings 178.2 4.2 3.7 4.3 4.0 4.4 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.6 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.8 8.8 9.1 9.0 10.0 5.8 7.3 5.1 8.0 7.6 7.4 6.6 6.0 7.5 4.5 7.9 6.8 1.5 7.7 7.4 9.0 8.9 8.2
Squiggle 174.7 3.9 3.2 4.0 3.5 3.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.1 10.0 5.5 7.9 5.0 8.0 7.6 7.2 5.2 5.5 7.5 5.0 7.9 7.6 1.5 7.6 6.9 8.7 9.0 7.4
Informed Stats 174.0 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.8 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.4 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.0 8.1 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.3 10.0 6.7 6.3 4.8 7.3 7.3 7.7 6.6 5.6 7.6 4.4 7.9 6.7 2.1 8.5 8.5 9.3 9.3 8.7
Graft 173.3 2.9 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.4 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.1 10.0 5.7 6.3 3.6 8.1 7.7 7.4 6.0 5.2 7.4 4.3 8.2 6.6 0.7 8.6 8.0 9.2 9.1 7.7
Glicko Ratings 168.8 3.8 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 8.6 8.6 8.6 9.0 9.0 8.9 10.0 5.5 7.0 5.5 8.1 7.8 6.5 5.4 5.0 7.6 4.5 8.2 4.2 -0.5 8.0 8.7 9.2 9.0 7.2
Don't Blame the Data 167.1 3.8 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.8 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.5 9.0 8.7 10.0 5.2 6.3 5.2 7.9 7.4 7.9 5.4 4.5 7.3 2.8 8.4 6.7 0.7 8.8 8.0 9.4 9.3 9.0
Elo Predicts! 165.5 1.4 1.0 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.8 5.0 5.8 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.8 8.8 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 10.0 4.1 5.6 6.7 7.8 8.0 8.5 3.0 4.9 7.0 2.5 8.6 4.1 1.8 9.0 7.4 8.4 9.4 7.7
What Snoo Thinks 158.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.8 4.8 5.7 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 10.0 5.2 6.3 -0.3 8.0 7.5 7.1 7.6 4.7 7.0 1.9 8.1 6.0 -1.4 8.1 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2
AFLalytics 151.6 4.0 3.4 4.0 4.0 4.4 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.7 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.7 10.0 5.6 7.3 4.4 7.8 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.2 7.3 4.1 7.7 6.8 1.2 7.0 6.9 8.8 8.6 7.8
ZaphBot 148.4 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.7 10.0 5.5 7.2 4.9 8.0 7.2 7.0 6.9 4.7 7.3 2.8 7.5 6.7 -0.2 6.9 7.7 8.8 9.0 8.2
Ladder 102.3 -2.7 -2.1 -2.7 -3.1 -2.4 0.8 1.5 1.5 3.1 5.4 3.1 5.8 4.8 5.4 5.8 5.8 7.1 8.0 7.4 7.1 7.4 8.4 8.4 8.7 10.0 5.4 8.7 -1.3 6.8 2.2 2.9 5.8 4.0 5.6 0.6 6.0 5.5 -6.7 -0.6 5.4 6.9 8.2 8.0

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 16
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 17
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 18
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 19
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 20
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 20
10.00000000 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 21
10.00000000 Stattraction Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 21
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 21
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 21
10.00000000 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 22
10.00000000 Informed Stats Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 22
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 22
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 22
10.00000000 AFL Lab Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 23
10.00000000 AFL Lab Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 23
10.00000000 AFL Lab Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 23
10.00000000 AFL Lab West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 23
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 23
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 23
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 23
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 23
10.00000000 Informed Stats Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 23
10.00000000 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 23
10.00000000 Informed Stats Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 15th 23
10.00000000 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
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5
6
7
8
9
10
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18
 17th 23

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-15.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
-14.7 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-13.9 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-13.3 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
-13.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
-13.1 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
-13.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 13th 1
-13.0 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 3
-13.0 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-12.8 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
-12.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-12.7 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-12.6 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-12.4 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 2
-12.3 Graft Sydney
1
2
3
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7
8
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14
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18
 2nd -1
-12.3 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 13th 2
-12.2 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
10
11
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14
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18
 13th 2
-12.1 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
11
12
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14
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18
 13th 3
-12.0 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
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7
8
9
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14
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18
 13th 3
-12.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-11.3 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 13th 0
-11.2 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
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9
10
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14
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18
 13th 2
-11.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 13th 0
-11.0 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
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12
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14
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18
 13th 3
-10.8 Live Ladders Sydney
1
2
3
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18
 2nd -1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
50.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 13th 2
49.4 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
47.8 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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16
17
18
 13th 3
46.6 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
6
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9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 13th 2
46.3 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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7
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9
10
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14
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18
 13th 0
46.1 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
46.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 13th 1
46.0 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
11
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14
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18
 13th 3
45.6 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
2
3
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10
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14
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18
 13th 2
45.3 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
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9
10
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18
 13th 3
44.6 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
11
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13
14
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18
 13th 2
44.4 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
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7
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9
10
11
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13
14
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18
 13th 2
44.3 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
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9
10
11
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14
15
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18
 13th 3
44.1 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
44.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
42.7 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 13th 0
42.4 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 13th 2
42.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
42.0 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
41.4 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1
41.1 Live Ladders Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 13th 2
41.0 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
40.8 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
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 12th 0
40.6 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
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 13th 1
40.3 Live Ladders Gold Coast
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 13th 3
40.2 AFLalytics Gold Coast
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 13th 3

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-46.1 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 3
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 0
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st -1
-44.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 2
-44.6 Graft Sydney
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 2nd -1
-41.5 Live Ladders Sydney
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 2nd -1
-40.1 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 3
-39.6 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 1st 1
-39.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd -1
-38.4 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 2
-37.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 2nd -1
-36.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd -1
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd 0
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd -1
-35.6 Don't Blame the Data Fremantle
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 1st 1
-35.4 Informed Stats Fremantle
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 1st 1
-35.2 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 7th 0
-34.9 Graft Sydney
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 2nd 0
-34.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 4
-34.7 AFL Lab Sydney
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 2nd -1
-34.4 Don't Blame the Data Fremantle
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 1st 0
-34.3 AFL Lab Fremantle
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 1st -1
-34.1 Stattraction Sydney
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 2nd -1