LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sydney Fremantle Hawthorn Brisbane Lions Gold Coast Geelong Melbourne Collingwood St Kilda North Melbourne Adelaide Western Bulldogs Port Adelaide Greater Western Sydney West Coast Carlton Essendon Richmond
AFLalytics 51.6 3.3 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.8 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.2 2.7 3.1 6.8 5.7 5.9 6.9 5.2 6.6 5.7 6.2 4.5 -4.3 6.9 2.2 7.6 6.3 7.9 7.2
Winnable 50.4 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.8 5.6 5.5 6.0 6.7 6.9 2.9 2.5 6.6 7.3 5.9 7.1 3.3 6.7 6.3 5.9 2.4 -4.8 7.4 3.8 7.7 3.9 8.6 7.0
Wheelo Ratings 50.3 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.6 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.8 7.1 1.8 2.7 7.3 6.6 6.5 7.0 4.4 6.7 5.8 5.5 4.1 -6.4 7.3 1.1 7.8 6.5 8.2 7.4
Live Ladders 50.0 2.8 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 6.7 6.9 2.0 1.9 8.0 6.0 6.5 5.8 5.5 7.2 5.8 3.2 4.1 -4.7 7.8 0.1 7.5 7.2 8.5 7.6
Matter of Stats 49.4 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.6 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.9 7.1 2.1 3.4 7.3 7.6 6.1 6.3 4.1 7.0 5.9 4.3 4.2 -4.8 7.2 -1.8 7.8 6.6 8.2 7.3
AFL Lab 48.9 2.7 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.3 5.7 6.4 6.6 0.1 1.0 7.3 7.7 4.4 5.9 5.9 6.8 6.7 4.3 3.5 -4.1 7.5 1.3 7.7 5.8 8.3 8.1
Squiggle 47.3 2.5 2.7 3.5 3.5 4.2 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.6 7.0 3.6 1.9 7.0 6.8 6.3 7.0 0.8 6.8 5.9 5.4 4.1 -8.9 6.8 3.9 7.5 5.1 6.8 8.4
PlusSixOne 46.9 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.4 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.6 6.9 1.6 5.0 6.4 6.4 5.0 7.1 1.7 6.7 5.3 5.0 2.3 -3.4 6.6 -0.1 7.7 6.0 7.7 7.4
ZaphBot 46.8 1.3 2.6 2.8 3.5 4.5 5.3 5.8 6.5 7.0 7.5 2.5 2.2 7.2 6.1 6.5 6.5 5.1 7.1 3.5 4.7 2.7 -9.9 7.6 1.9 7.5 5.9 8.2 8.9
Stattraction 42.5 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.4 5.6 5.7 6.4 7.1 2.0 1.9 5.9 7.6 6.7 7.2 6.4 7.4 4.2 3.3 3.3 -10.5 8.0 0.7 7.8 6.1 8.7 8.3
Don't Blame the Data 39.5 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.6 3.2 4.8 4.8 5.2 6.1 6.5 -0.8 1.7 6.9 7.3 6.4 5.5 2.2 6.7 4.1 1.6 1.7 -11.6 8.4 -0.8 7.6 6.8 9.0 8.2
The Footycast 38.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.8 4.1 5.7 6.5 6.9 -2.9 1.9 7.8 7.7 4.6 6.5 4.7 7.1 4.3 4.9 3.6 -6.6 7.7 -2.2 6.9 5.0 8.3 8.1
Glicko Ratings 37.3 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.4 4.1 5.2 4.9 5.5 5.5 -0.1 1.8 7.1 7.3 6.9 7.0 1.7 7.1 6.0 4.3 6.0 -12.2 7.2 -3.1 7.5 5.2 6.5 8.5
Graft 36.9 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 4.4 4.7 5.4 6.5 6.8 -0.8 2.4 6.5 4.9 6.2 6.5 2.9 7.1 4.8 2.0 -4.0 -9.8 8.2 -0.6 6.9 6.7 7.8 8.9
What Snoo Thinks 35.1 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.7 5.2 5.2 5.9 6.6 -1.7 1.5 7.1 2.7 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.2 3.9 -0.8 -12.4 6.5 0.3 7.7 8.0 8.4 5.8
Informed Stats 33.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 3.2 4.4 3.6 4.6 5.9 6.2 -2.0 3.9 7.3 6.4 2.9 7.4 4.6 6.8 2.7 3.0 -2.3 -8.6 7.7 -1.6 6.2 5.2 8.9 8.9
Ladder 23.0 -2.7 -2.7 -0.8 1.2 1.2 4.8 5.8 6.4 10.0 8.0 0.8 5.4 -5.4 3.8 0.8 4.1 4.8 0.2 -1.8 5.1 -10.3 1.8 3.1 4.1 5.8 8.0 7.4
Elo Predicts! 14.6 -1.0 -0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.5 3.6 4.2 4.5 -4.6 -2.9 6.0 7.4 4.2 6.9 -2.5 6.7 2.3 -2.6 -2.5 -14.0 7.9 -7.4 3.8 4.3 7.9 8.5

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.95955000 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.94010956 Graft Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.92574541 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.91581915 Graft Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.89451471 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.83108871 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.82350588 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.82350588 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.78129703 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.77869626 The Footycast Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.77643953 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.75859903 Stattraction Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.75713235 The Footycast Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.75212524 Matter of Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.75045241 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.74701874 Don't Blame the Data Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.74426350 Matter of Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.74296618 Don't Blame the Data Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.73520071 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.72155753 Graft Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.71868529 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 7
9.70432579 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.69926741 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.69443818 Stattraction Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.68291735 Wheelo Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.68172088 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-20.3 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
-20.3 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
-20.1 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
-18.9 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
-17.9 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
-17.6 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
-17.5 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
-17.3 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
-16.9 ZaphBot Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
-16.8 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
-16.6 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
-16.3 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
-16.3 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
-16.1 Glicko Ratings Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
-16.0 Glicko Ratings Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
-15.8 Squiggle Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
-15.7 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
-15.6 Stattraction Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
-15.6 Glicko Ratings Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
-15.5 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
-15.5 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
-15.5 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
-15.5 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
-15.4 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
-15.4 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 5

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
60.6 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
60.5 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
60.3 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
57.9 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
55.8 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
55.2 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
55.0 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
54.6 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
53.8 ZaphBot Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
53.5 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
53.3 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
52.7 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
52.6 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
52.2 Glicko Ratings Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
52.0 Glicko Ratings Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
51.6 Squiggle Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
51.3 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
51.1 Stattraction Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
51.1 Glicko Ratings Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
51.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
51.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 2
51.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 3
50.9 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
50.9 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
50.7 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
50.7 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 5

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-50.5 Graft Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-47.4 Live Ladders Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-46.0 Informed Stats Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 3
-45.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-45.0 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-45.0 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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-44.3 Informed Stats Sydney
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-43.8 ZaphBot Sydney
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-42.5 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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-41.7 The Footycast Sydney
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 1st 0
-41.7 The Footycast Sydney
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-40.7 Graft Sydney
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-40.5 AFL Lab Sydney
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-40.2 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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-40.0 Stattraction Sydney
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-39.8 Don't Blame the Data Sydney
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-39.7 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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-39.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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-39.6 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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-39.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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-39.0 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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-38.2 Wheelo Ratings Sydney
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-38.0 Squiggle Sydney
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 1st -1
-38.0 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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-37.5 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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