LEADERBOARD

After Round 14, 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5

90 20.43 27.15 75.0%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6

89 21.04 26.87 74.2%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6

89 19.51 27.06 74.2%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6

89 18.69 27.57 74.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6

88 21.06 26.95 73.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6

88 20.24 27.62 73.3%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4

88 19.64 26.93 73.3%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6

88 17.75 27.46 73.3%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5

87 19.45 26.99 72.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6

87 18.81 28.65 72.5%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5

87 18.35 28.43 72.5%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5

86 21.75 26.59 71.7%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4

85 19.34 27.17 70.8%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4

84 20.31 26.70 70.0%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5

84 20.16 27.39 70.0%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4

84 17.64 27.81 70.0%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6

84 17.37 27.93 70.0%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4

84 16.38 27.23 70.0%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6

83 15.92 28.10 69.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4

82 19.45 26.66 68.3%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5

82 17.33 28.31 68.3%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5

82 11.92 29.50 68.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5

80 18.27 27.61 66.7%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5

79 15.35 28.95 65.8%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6

78 9.47 29.22 65.0%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5

77 16.04 27.94 64.2%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6

77 14.09 28.98 64.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4

77 14.02 28.40 64.2%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Matter of Stats 93% 3.8 26.0 71% 0.0 26.9 85% 2.8 21.5 77% 2.8 27.2 92% 5.4 25.9 62% 1.1 28.3 71% 2.2 22.1 75% 0.3 24.6 57% -0.6 27.2 79% 1.9 18.8 57% -0.0 29.4 92% 5.4 27.6 62% 1.8 38.1 85% 3.0 27.6 62% 0.8 36.4 62% 0.7 28.1 93% 7.5 22.9 77% 2.0 31.2
Winnable 86% 5.2 22.9 71% -0.4 26.2 85% 1.4 24.0 77% 2.8 29.0 85% 6.6 25.9 62% 0.3 28.4 64% 1.6 25.2 67% 0.6 25.6 57% -1.4 28.0 71% 2.6 19.8 64% -0.6 29.8 100% 5.4 28.2 62% 1.8 34.6 85% 3.8 23.2 62% 1.0 35.1 62% 0.5 28.3 93% 8.0 22.6 85% 2.8 27.7
Aggregate 93% 3.8 24.5 71% 0.3 25.0 77% 2.0 23.3 85% 2.7 26.8 85% 5.0 25.4 62% 1.1 28.6 64% 1.9 23.8 75% 0.5 24.9 50% -0.8 27.2 79% 2.2 18.2 64% -0.0 29.4 92% 4.9 27.2 62% 1.4 37.5 85% 3.5 25.8 62% 0.6 37.6 62% 0.8 28.1 93% 7.0 23.7 77% 2.1 31.2
AFL Lab 100% 4.0 24.1 71% -0.9 26.6 69% 2.3 21.9 77% 2.6 27.2 85% 4.7 26.6 77% 0.9 27.6 71% 2.6 23.8 67% 1.1 26.0 50% -1.9 28.4 79% 2.8 17.0 64% 0.1 28.6 85% 3.7 30.9 69% 2.1 36.2 77% 3.6 25.1 46% -0.5 40.6 77% 1.9 25.9 93% 5.9 27.6 77% 2.2 33.2
Don't Blame the Data 86% 3.1 25.8 71% 0.4 26.1 77% 2.1 23.5 77% 2.3 27.2 77% 4.9 25.9 62% 1.1 28.1 71% 2.1 23.4 75% 1.1 23.4 57% -0.3 27.5 79% 3.2 17.6 64% 0.3 28.0 92% 5.1 27.7 62% 1.4 36.7 85% 3.9 24.6 62% 0.7 37.4 62% 1.2 26.9 93% 7.0 24.7 69% 2.4 31.6
Live Ladders 93% 3.9 26.7 71% 0.3 22.9 77% 2.2 23.8 77% 3.6 25.5 92% 4.3 27.1 62% 1.4 28.4 71% 2.3 24.1 75% 0.8 25.0 43% -1.0 28.9 71% 3.0 19.1 57% -0.1 29.9 85% 4.8 27.5 69% 1.6 37.0 85% 3.5 25.8 62% 0.2 39.5 69% 1.2 27.2 86% 6.1 27.4 77% 2.3 32.5
Glicko Ratings 79% 4.2 25.7 71% 0.3 26.1 69% 1.0 25.2 85% 3.3 25.9 100% 6.2 23.3 62% -0.1 30.4 64% 1.8 23.2 83% 0.8 23.9 50% -1.2 27.2 71% 1.1 20.6 57% -0.2 29.2 92% 5.0 27.8 62% 1.7 36.1 85% 3.3 27.4 62% 1.1 35.2 62% 1.5 26.9 93% 7.4 21.6 77% 2.1 29.9
Punters 93% 4.6 22.7 71% -0.1 26.9 77% 1.0 23.8 77% 2.9 28.1 77% 5.7 25.9 62% 0.5 29.2 57% 1.0 25.5 83% 0.2 24.8 43% -1.9 28.0 71% 2.4 18.3 64% -0.6 31.1 92% 4.8 29.3 62% 1.3 37.7 85% 2.3 27.5 62% 0.4 37.1 69% 0.8 27.9 93% 7.7 22.4 85% 2.6 29.6
s10 86% 3.8 24.7 71% 0.4 24.1 77% 2.1 23.3 85% 3.0 25.8 77% 4.9 26.1 62% 1.0 28.6 64% 2.1 22.7 67% 0.7 24.6 57% -1.1 27.7 64% 2.3 18.2 57% -0.2 29.5 92% 4.6 27.0 62% 1.4 37.5 85% 3.7 25.4 62% 0.4 38.4 69% 1.1 27.6 93% 6.9 24.1 77% 2.1 31.6
The Wooden Finger 93% 4.1 24.6 71% 0.3 29.9 77% 1.5 25.2 77% 2.8 27.5 85% 5.4 25.8 62% 1.5 28.2 71% 1.9 23.0 58% -1.3 27.4 50% -0.8 29.6 64% 1.9 23.9 71% 0.3 31.3 92% 5.5 29.8 62% 0.7 38.9 85% 3.3 27.2 77% 0.8 36.4 54% 0.6 28.7 93% 7.4 25.6 62% 1.8 33.5
Informed Stats 93% 4.8 25.3 71% -0.0 33.1 77% 1.5 20.5 69% 1.7 29.7 85% 5.5 28.3 62% 2.0 26.0 71% 1.9 25.1 75% 0.1 24.2 50% -1.1 27.4 79% 1.8 20.9 57% -1.0 31.2 92% 5.5 30.3 54% 1.7 38.2 85% 1.4 29.4 54% -0.8 39.7 69% 1.2 28.9 93% 8.3 22.6 69% 2.4 31.7
Drop Kick Data 93% 4.6 24.3 71% 0.7 25.4 69% 2.3 22.0 85% 2.9 26.4 85% 5.7 26.2 62% -0.1 28.4 64% 2.3 22.0 67% 0.5 23.6 50% -0.7 27.5 71% 2.1 18.2 57% 0.2 29.5 92% 5.1 26.9 54% 1.7 37.5 85% 3.7 26.7 62% 0.7 36.9 62% 1.6 26.9 93% 8.0 21.5 69% 2.2 29.7
AFLalytics 79% 4.3 25.3 71% -0.4 26.1 77% 2.0 24.2 85% 2.8 27.1 85% 5.3 24.4 62% 0.9 28.9 64% 1.9 23.5 75% 0.2 25.6 50% -1.4 27.5 64% 1.1 21.0 43% 0.3 29.1 92% 5.0 26.6 62% 1.9 36.3 85% 3.8 26.5 62% 1.1 36.6 62% 0.5 28.5 93% 7.1 23.7 69% 2.3 29.4
Wheelo Ratings 79% 4.9 23.0 71% 0.4 27.5 69% 2.1 23.0 77% 3.0 26.7 77% 5.7 25.3 54% 0.3 30.0 57% 2.1 21.8 83% 0.5 23.3 50% -1.7 27.5 64% 1.3 19.7 50% 0.2 29.9 92% 5.5 26.6 54% 1.3 37.9 85% 3.2 26.5 62% 0.6 36.4 69% 1.9 26.2 93% 7.3 20.2 77% 2.1 30.3
What Snoo Thinks 86% 3.2 25.7 71% -0.7 24.8 77% 2.4 23.4 77% 2.8 28.0 77% 5.1 27.0 62% 1.9 28.1 57% 2.2 23.1 83% 1.0 22.8 57% -0.1 26.3 64% 2.0 19.8 57% 0.2 29.6 85% 5.3 28.5 54% 1.2 37.2 77% 2.9 27.8 69% 1.3 36.1 54% 0.0 28.8 93% 7.5 24.5 62% 2.1 32.4
Squiggle 79% 4.7 24.5 71% 1.1 26.0 69% 0.1 27.6 77% 3.7 26.2 92% 5.4 24.6 54% 0.8 29.1 64% 1.4 24.0 75% 0.0 25.6 36% -2.3 31.1 71% 1.8 19.3 50% 0.1 30.0 92% 4.6 27.3 62% 2.2 34.8 85% 2.2 29.3 46% 0.4 37.4 62% 0.6 29.1 93% 6.1 25.8 85% 2.1 29.6
Stattraction 79% 2.9 26.8 71% -0.0 23.4 77% 2.1 23.5 62% 1.7 29.7 85% 4.9 27.7 62% 1.4 29.3 50% 0.6 27.4 67% -0.8 27.8 64% 0.3 26.3 64% 2.4 19.0 64% 0.4 28.9 92% 5.2 28.2 62% 1.1 38.5 85% 3.6 24.0 62% 0.2 38.6 62% 0.4 27.9 93% 6.5 24.6 62% 1.7 32.4
Cheap Stats 79% 3.2 23.0 71% 1.0 24.6 77% 1.4 22.2 77% 2.8 26.2 85% 4.3 27.6 54% 0.7 29.8 57% 0.9 25.9 75% -0.4 24.4 43% -0.7 29.5 71% 2.3 17.1 57% 0.1 30.0 92% 4.3 27.5 54% 0.5 39.2 85% 2.4 27.2 62% 0.7 36.2 62% -0.2 29.6 93% 7.1 22.5 69% 2.1 28.7
ZaphBot 71% 2.5 24.1 64% -0.5 28.5 77% 2.5 26.7 69% 0.9 29.2 77% 4.1 29.8 69% 1.2 27.8 64% 2.4 22.1 75% 1.0 23.2 57% -1.0 29.6 50% 2.5 20.4 57% -0.9 29.7 92% 3.6 28.5 54% -0.2 39.8 85% 4.5 22.7 54% -0.7 40.2 54% 0.6 30.7 93% 6.9 22.9 85% 2.3 30.9
The Cruncher 79% 4.9 23.7 71% 0.4 26.1 77% 1.6 23.4 77% 2.2 29.4 77% 6.1 22.5 54% -0.3 30.0 64% 2.6 22.1 75% -0.1 23.5 43% -1.3 26.4 57% 0.2 22.4 43% 0.2 28.5 92% 5.0 25.8 54% 1.2 38.0 85% 2.8 28.1 62% 1.2 34.5 62% 1.9 26.2 93% 8.1 21.2 69% 2.3 29.0
footycharts 79% 4.2 27.0 71% -1.3 28.2 77% 2.0 23.8 77% 2.8 26.7 85% 5.0 25.3 62% 1.4 29.1 57% 1.4 25.1 67% -0.1 27.2 43% -2.1 30.0 71% 2.6 18.4 50% -0.5 30.4 85% 5.0 29.7 54% 2.2 36.3 85% 3.7 27.3 54% 0.6 38.1 54% 0.2 29.4 86% 5.6 28.1 77% 2.0 30.3
The Footycast 71% 2.2 29.7 64% 0.1 26.5 69% 1.1 24.3 77% 2.8 27.4 85% 4.2 25.6 62% -0.4 32.6 64% 0.8 26.1 58% -0.2 27.8 50% -1.2 30.8 57% 1.0 22.7 50% -1.8 34.0 92% 4.4 27.4 69% 0.5 39.3 85% 2.3 28.3 69% 1.3 34.8 62% 0.2 30.2 93% 7.0 27.4 54% -0.5 36.7
Massey Ratings 71% 3.1 24.6 71% 0.3 23.4 69% 2.5 23.7 77% 3.4 24.7 77% 4.9 26.9 54% 1.0 28.5 64% 2.2 23.4 67% 0.5 24.8 43% -1.3 27.8 64% 2.6 18.8 50% -0.9 31.1 85% 4.5 28.3 62% 1.0 38.3 77% 3.8 27.8 54% -0.4 40.7 62% 0.2 29.1 93% 7.5 23.4 62% 1.7 33.0
Graft 86% 3.7 26.8 64% 0.1 31.1 77% 1.6 22.8 62% 2.5 26.7 85% 4.1 25.6 69% 1.7 27.4 57% 1.1 25.8 58% -0.2 26.7 43% -0.8 29.0 57% 1.5 20.2 50% -0.7 32.3 85% 4.6 31.8 54% 1.0 40.0 85% 3.4 26.7 62% 0.2 38.3 46% -0.8 31.7 86% 6.8 23.2 62% 1.0 35.9
PlusSixOne 79% 1.8 27.7 57% -0.0 20.3 54% 0.8 27.4 69% 0.9 30.0 85% 2.2 27.5 69% 1.3 28.1 57% 1.0 28.0 50% 0.4 26.7 43% -0.4 26.4 64% 1.1 23.7 57% -0.2 30.3 85% 2.8 27.7 69% 1.0 36.5 77% 1.9 30.2 38% 0.1 40.7 62% -0.4 31.0 93% 3.6 31.5 62% 1.2 33.6
Elo Predicts! 64% 2.6 27.5 64% 0.0 20.4 77% 1.7 25.6 69% 2.4 27.2 69% 3.8 29.3 69% 1.9 27.5 64% 1.7 25.9 58% -0.0 26.6 43% -0.6 24.9 57% 1.9 21.0 43% -1.0 31.1 77% 4.0 26.2 62% 1.2 38.2 77% 3.7 25.9 69% 0.4 39.3 38% -0.1 29.2 86% 6.4 26.6 69% 2.2 32.2
Hyperion 71% 1.9 28.3 57% -0.1 26.1 69% 1.1 24.8 69% 2.2 27.8 85% 4.4 27.8 69% 1.1 28.1 57% 1.6 27.9 50% 0.6 25.9 50% -1.2 28.9 57% 2.3 18.6 57% -0.5 30.9 85% 4.5 29.2 46% -0.8 41.1 77% 4.0 26.1 62% -0.6 40.7 38% -0.1 29.0 93% 6.6 26.3 62% 1.3 35.1
AFL Scorigami 71% 3.1 28.4 57% -0.2 22.4 77% 1.9 24.6 62% 2.1 28.5 85% 4.2 24.0 46% 0.3 29.9 50% 1.2 26.3 50% -0.8 27.7 50% -1.3 26.2 57% 0.7 22.2 57% 0.6 27.8 92% 3.7 28.0 54% 1.7 37.0 85% 3.0 27.9 62% 0.8 38.4 54% -0.1 30.2 93% 6.5 28.6 54% 0.5 34.2