LEADERBOARD

After 2 games of Round 2, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 2

14 2.6226 2.62 24.4925 24.49 87.5000 87.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 2

13 4.5280 4.53 23.8194 23.82 81.2500 81.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 2

13 4.1717 4.17 24.7081 24.71 81.2500 81.2%
HBin

4 7 2

13 3.8705 3.87 26.0312 26.03 81.2500 81.2%
Matter of Stats

3 7 2

12 4.6014 4.60 25.8463 25.85 75.0000 75.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 2

12 4.2889 4.29 26.1575 26.16 75.0000 75.0%
s10

2 8 2

12 4.0898 4.09 25.4225 25.42 75.0000 75.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 2

12 4.0013 4.00 25.5000 25.50 75.0000 75.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 2

12 3.7725 3.77 26.4150 26.41 75.0000 75.0%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 2

12 3.6993 3.70 25.3844 25.38 75.0000 75.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 2

12 3.2356 3.24 24.4375 24.44 75.0000 75.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 2

11 4.7625 4.76 25.4994 25.50 68.7500 68.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 2

11 4.2654 4.27 26.1069 26.11 68.7500 68.8%
Graft

3 7 1

11 4.1756 4.18 27.2500 27.25 68.7500 68.8%
Aggregate

2 7 2

11 3.5212 3.52 25.4456 25.45 68.7500 68.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 2

11 3.5159 3.52 29.5625 29.56 68.7500 68.8%
footycharts

3 7 1

11 3.4822 3.48 25.4031 25.40 68.7500 68.8%
Informed Stats

2 7 1

10 3.5291 3.53 28.3125 28.31 62.5000 62.5%
Stattraction

2 6 2

10 3.1708 3.17 26.8219 26.82 62.5000 62.5%
The Footycast

2 7 1

10 2.9101 2.91 28.6750 28.68 62.5000 62.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 1

10 2.6417 2.64 27.0000 27.00 62.5000 62.5%
Squiggle

1 7 2

10 2.5854 2.59 28.1438 28.14 62.5000 62.5%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 1

10 2.3442 2.34 29.0625 29.06 62.5000 62.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 1

10 2.1056 2.11 30.3044 30.30 62.5000 62.5%
PlusSixOne

2 7 1

10 2.0325 2.03 28.2563 28.26 62.5000 62.5%
Winnable

1 7 1

9 3.0578 3.06 26.7569 26.76 56.2500 56.2%
Punters

2 6 1

9 2.9105 2.91 26.1650 26.16 56.2500 56.2%
In The Game

2 6 1

9 2.5075 2.51 26.5269 26.53 56.2500 56.2%
Hyperion

3 5 1

9 1.4069 1.41 28.9375 28.94 56.2500 56.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 1

9 0.7454 0.75 30.3750 30.38 56.2500 56.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †4 50.0000 50.0%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Holy Grail Ratings 50% -0.1 11.8 50% -0.2 29.6 100% 0.3 27.5 50% 0.2 12.9 100% 0.5 31.5 100% 0.4 12.5 100% 0.4 34.0 100% 0.7 33.8 100% 0.4 41.9 100% 0.7 20.6 100% 0.1 8.7 100% 0.1 39.2 100% 0.1 39.2 100% 0.1 2.0 100% 0.4 7.8 100% 0.5 32.5 100% 0.6 12.2 67% 0.1 26.9
What Snoo Thinks 50% -0.1 11.9 100% 0.2 22.5 100% 0.6 23.8 50% 0.3 9.8 100% 0.7 31.4 100% 0.6 14.2 50% 0.4 38.5 50% 0.5 43.7 50% 0.5 43.8 67% 1.1 20.3 100% 0.3 5.3 100% 0.3 36.8 100% 0.3 36.8 100% 0.1 1.3 100% 0.7 3.5 100% 1.0 30.0 100% 0.8 24.5 100% 0.8 21.9
AFLalytics 50% -0.6 18.9 50% -0.3 28.0 100% 0.9 30.3 50% -0.6 19.2 100% 0.6 34.5 100% 0.6 16.0 100% 0.8 33.0 100% 1.0 27.0 100% 0.7 38.8 100% 1.3 22.6 0% -0.0 14.2 100% 0.3 33.2 100% 0.3 33.2 100% 0.5 13.8 50% 0.2 8.6 100% 1.2 30.7 100% 0.9 4.0 67% 0.4 24.8
HBin 50% -0.0 10.6 100% 0.3 19.6 100% 0.7 42.6 50% 0.2 9.1 100% 0.7 34.5 100% 0.2 3.5 50% 0.2 30.6 50% 0.8 37.1 100% 0.5 45.2 100% 1.1 21.8 100% 0.2 7.2 0% -0.2 51.7 0% -0.2 51.7 100% 0.7 23.5 100% 0.5 4.7 100% 0.6 35.6 100% 0.8 16.4 100% 0.6 24.5
Matter of Stats 50% 0.6 17.4 50% -0.3 27.6 100% 0.8 31.4 50% 0.4 8.9 100% 0.6 33.9 100% 0.5 9.0 100% 0.5 31.9 100% 0.9 33.7 50% 0.4 45.2 67% 1.0 22.3 100% 0.3 2.2 0% -0.2 51.1 0% -0.2 51.1 100% 0.4 11.4 100% 0.8 2.6 100% 0.8 32.2 100% 0.9 12.8 67% 0.8 31.7
Glicko Ratings 50% -0.4 22.0 50% -0.7 32.6 100% 1.2 33.4 50% -0.4 19.1 100% 0.8 22.6 100% 0.6 14.2 100% 0.7 33.4 100% 1.1 30.0 50% 0.4 41.9 67% 1.1 22.2 0% -0.0 13.5 100% 0.3 35.5 100% 0.3 35.5 100% 0.6 23.1 50% 0.4 8.6 100% 1.2 31.8 100% 0.9 7.5 67% 0.4 27.1
s10 50% -0.2 16.7 50% -0.4 29.8 100% 1.0 32.9 50% -0.2 13.9 100% 0.7 28.4 100% 0.6 12.2 50% 0.5 35.1 50% 0.9 31.8 50% 0.4 44.1 67% 1.1 21.5 100% 0.0 12.0 100% 0.2 39.4 100% 0.2 39.4 100% 0.6 17.6 100% 0.4 6.3 100% 1.1 30.9 100% 0.9 5.6 67% 0.4 26.7
The Wooden Finger 100% 0.2 6.5 0% -1.1 39.0 100% 0.8 33.0 100% 0.6 10.0 100% 0.9 9.0 100% 0.6 15.0 50% 0.4 38.0 50% 0.8 37.5 50% 0.4 44.5 67% 1.3 17.0 100% 0.3 2.0 100% 0.0 45.0 100% 0.0 45.0 100% 0.5 15.0 100% 0.8 4.5 67% 0.1 41.3 100% 1.0 14.0 67% 0.5 23.3
AFL Scorigami 50% 0.0 17.0 0% -1.4 39.1 100% 0.6 34.6 50% -0.4 17.5 100% 0.9 19.0 100% 0.7 20.0 50% 0.7 38.6 50% 0.9 30.1 100% 0.6 42.5 100% 1.4 15.7 100% 0.6 8.0 100% 0.3 37.0 100% 0.3 37.0 100% 0.4 11.3 100% 0.7 9.0 67% -0.6 43.0 100% 0.9 3.0 67% 0.9 25.7
Drop Kick Data 50% -0.5 24.9 50% -0.4 28.5 100% 0.9 25.8 50% -0.8 20.5 100% 0.8 22.8 100% 0.5 8.8 100% 0.6 31.9 100% 0.9 32.1 50% 0.4 45.3 67% 1.2 20.6 0% -0.2 17.4 100% 0.4 34.0 100% 0.4 34.0 100% 0.4 7.6 50% 0.1 10.9 100% 1.3 29.6 100% 0.9 9.3 67% 0.6 29.3
Wheelo Ratings 50% -0.5 15.2 50% -0.3 26.9 100% 0.8 29.6 50% -0.6 19.8 100% 0.8 21.1 100% 0.5 8.9 100% 0.6 31.5 100% 1.0 29.0 50% 0.2 46.0 67% 0.9 21.0 0% -0.2 19.1 100% 0.3 36.6 100% 0.3 36.6 100% 0.4 10.8 50% -0.1 14.2 100% 1.3 27.7 100% 1.0 3.9 67% 0.2 24.8
The Cruncher 50% -0.2 22.5 50% -0.0 24.6 100% 1.1 30.8 50% -0.5 16.7 100% 0.8 28.1 100% 0.6 11.4 50% 0.6 33.8 50% 0.9 31.9 50% 0.4 41.4 67% 1.2 24.6 0% -0.3 19.8 100% 0.4 32.7 100% 0.4 32.7 100% 0.6 14.6 50% 0.0 11.3 100% 1.3 32.8 100% 0.9 7.8 67% 1.2 23.5
Don't Blame the Data 50% -0.5 14.5 0% -0.8 32.5 100% 1.1 36.8 50% -0.0 18.0 100% 0.8 27.6 100% 0.7 14.0 50% 0.6 36.1 50% 0.9 29.7 50% 0.4 43.8 67% 1.1 21.9 100% 0.3 4.5 100% 0.1 44.7 100% 0.1 44.7 100% 0.7 20.1 100% 1.0 6.6 67% 0.7 35.8 100% 1.0 1.2 67% 0.5 23.2
Graft 0% -0.2 15.0 0% -0.1 26.5 100% 0.7 35.0 50% 0.5 17.0 100% 0.7 21.0 100% 0.6 23.0 50% 0.5 42.0 50% 0.8 39.0 100% 0.5 39.5 100% 1.2 18.0 100% 0.1 7.0 100% 0.0 46.0 100% 0.0 46.0 100% 0.5 20.0 100% 0.7 13.0 67% 0.7 35.7 100% 0.9 17.0 33% 0.2 25.7
Aggregate 50% -0.3 13.5 0% -0.5 31.2 100% 0.9 32.1 50% 0.0 12.2 100% 0.7 28.4 100% 0.5 11.0 50% 0.4 34.9 50% 0.8 32.8 50% 0.4 45.7 67% 1.1 20.3 100% 0.1 10.3 100% 0.1 44.0 100% 0.1 44.0 100% 0.5 14.7 100% 0.4 5.8 67% 0.8 32.0 100% 0.9 6.8 67% 0.1 27.2
ZaphBot 50% 0.0 13.5 50% -0.7 29.5 100% 1.4 31.5 50% 0.6 24.5 100% 0.8 26.0 100% 0.7 18.0 50% -0.2 48.0 50% 0.0 47.5 50% 0.0 50.5 67% 0.7 23.0 100% 0.3 0.0 0% -0.3 54.0 0% -0.3 54.0 100% 0.7 27.0 100% 1.2 13.5 100% 1.4 22.7 100% 0.9 17.0 67% -0.3 32.0
footycharts 0% -0.6 17.4 0% -0.8 33.9 100% 0.7 29.6 50% -0.2 14.3 100% 0.7 32.1 100% 0.6 12.8 100% 0.7 33.4 100% 0.9 32.5 50% 0.5 44.1 67% 1.2 20.2 100% 0.2 7.6 100% 0.3 37.4 100% 0.3 37.4 100% 0.4 8.1 100% 0.6 4.4 67% 0.7 33.0 100% 0.9 11.1 33% -0.1 29.3
Informed Stats 0% -0.6 18.5 0% -0.7 35.0 100% 1.0 37.0 50% 0.1 20.0 100% 0.9 15.0 100% 0.3 3.0 50% 0.1 33.5 50% 0.7 42.5 50% 0.1 49.0 67% 1.3 23.3 100% 0.1 9.0 100% 0.3 33.0 100% 0.3 33.0 100% 0.7 24.0 100% 0.7 11.0 67% 1.0 37.0 100% 0.9 21.0 33% -0.3 31.3
Stattraction 50% -0.0 10.6 0% -0.7 34.2 100% 0.8 36.4 50% 0.4 13.2 100% 0.7 28.9 100% 0.4 5.9 50% 0.4 31.9 50% 0.8 34.0 50% 0.2 47.5 67% 0.7 23.4 100% 0.3 4.7 0% -0.1 49.6 0% -0.1 49.6 100% 0.5 17.3 100% 0.8 6.7 67% -0.0 40.0 100% 0.9 10.2 67% 0.5 24.4
The Footycast 0% -0.2 13.7 0% -1.1 41.6 100% 0.8 33.9 50% 0.4 18.2 100% 0.8 17.9 100% 0.5 13.3 50% 0.1 41.0 50% 0.4 41.3 50% 0.3 47.8 67% 1.3 19.1 100% 0.3 0.3 100% 0.0 44.7 100% 0.0 44.7 100% 0.5 17.9 100% 0.9 7.7 67% 0.3 40.9 100% 0.8 14.0 33% -0.2 31.6
Live Ladders 0% -0.7 19.0 0% -0.6 32.0 100% 0.6 28.5 50% 0.0 11.5 100% 0.6 37.0 100% 0.5 9.0 50% 0.4 34.0 50% 0.7 40.5 50% 0.4 46.5 67% 1.1 21.7 100% 0.1 9.0 100% 0.1 42.0 100% 0.1 42.0 100% 0.3 4.0 100% 0.5 5.0 67% 0.7 33.7 100% 0.8 22.0 33% -0.4 33.0
Squiggle 50% -0.2 13.2 50% -0.2 27.4 50% 0.5 40.1 50% 0.0 11.9 100% 0.4 44.8 100% 0.4 7.0 50% 0.3 33.4 50% 0.7 40.0 50% 0.3 44.9 67% 0.5 28.0 0% -0.0 14.4 100% 0.0 46.0 100% 0.0 46.0 100% 0.5 17.2 50% 0.2 9.0 67% 0.4 36.6 100% 0.8 20.2 67% 0.4 23.9
Elo Predicts! 0% -0.4 11.0 0% -1.1 32.5 100% 0.9 36.0 50% 0.2 10.0 100% 0.7 32.0 100% 0.5 1.0 50% 0.3 35.0 50% 0.8 38.0 100% 0.4 53.0 100% 1.2 22.0 100% 0.0 12.0 0% -0.4 66.0 0% -0.4 66.0 100% 0.5 17.0 100% 0.6 8.5 67% 0.3 39.7 100% 0.9 7.0 33% -0.3 32.0
AFL Lab 0% -0.5 21.2 0% -0.9 43.5 100% 0.6 42.0 50% 0.0 11.8 100% 0.6 27.4 100% 0.6 25.0 50% 0.4 45.5 50% 0.5 36.1 50% 0.3 44.5 67% 1.0 21.8 100% 0.2 4.3 100% 0.1 42.4 100% 0.1 42.4 100% 0.5 26.7 100% 0.4 3.9 67% 0.2 41.7 100% 0.7 6.2 33% -0.5 35.9
PlusSixOne 0% -0.7 18.1 50% -0.5 28.5 100% 0.9 22.4 50% 0.3 14.6 100% 0.6 37.2 100% 0.3 0.3 50% 0.1 32.4 50% 0.4 44.9 50% 0.2 52.4 67% 0.8 25.3 100% 0.1 11.0 0% -0.1 50.7 0% -0.1 50.7 100% 0.3 5.2 100% 0.6 10.6 100% 1.2 28.0 100% 0.7 25.2 33% -1.1 38.9
Winnable 0% -0.4 14.7 50% -0.7 31.6 100% 0.7 39.9 0% -0.4 18.1 100% 0.6 38.6 100% 0.5 8.7 50% 0.5 33.3 50% 0.8 34.9 50% 0.6 41.6 67% 1.0 23.1 0% -0.2 17.5 100% 0.7 21.0 100% 0.7 21.0 100% 0.6 19.8 0% -0.3 15.9 100% 0.7 33.8 100% 0.9 12.0 33% -0.3 28.9
Punters 0% -0.4 14.9 50% -0.5 26.5 100% 1.2 28.4 0% -0.5 18.7 100% 0.7 31.2 100% 0.4 4.8 100% 0.8 24.1 100% 1.3 26.3 50% 0.2 48.6 67% 0.9 24.3 0% -0.3 23.4 0% -0.2 52.2 0% -0.2 52.2 100% 0.6 17.1 0% -0.4 18.9 100% 1.6 24.0 100% 1.0 9.1 33% -0.3 29.9
In The Game 0% -0.8 16.3 50% -0.7 29.8 100% 1.5 26.5 50% -0.3 15.2 100% 0.9 19.4 100% 0.6 12.0 50% 0.4 36.8 50% 0.7 34.4 50% 0.1 51.9 67% 1.1 19.2 0% -0.4 18.2 0% -0.2 48.7 0% -0.2 48.7 100% 0.7 19.2 50% -0.1 12.2 100% 1.7 22.7 100% 0.9 7.2 33% -1.0 34.4
Hyperion 0% -0.4 16.0 0% -1.4 41.5 100% 1.2 33.0 50% 0.2 9.0 100% 0.8 25.0 100% 0.4 6.0 50% 0.3 33.0 50% 0.7 32.5 100% 0.2 50.0 100% 1.2 17.3 0% -0.2 21.0 0% -0.5 57.0 0% -0.5 57.0 100% 0.7 22.0 50% 0.1 11.0 67% 0.4 35.0 100% 0.9 5.0 33% -1.3 41.3
Cheap Stats 0% -1.0 26.5 50% -0.1 25.5 50% 0.1 26.5 50% -0.5 22.5 100% 0.4 47.0 100% 0.6 19.0 100% 0.8 31.0 100% 0.8 38.0 50% 0.2 45.5 67% 0.3 29.0 0% -0.3 23.0 0% -0.3 57.0 0% -0.3 57.0 0% -0.3 15.0 50% -0.2 17.0 100% 1.0 24.0 100% 0.5 33.0 33% -0.3 32.3
Massey Ratings 0% -0.2 20.5 0% -0.8 36.5 100% 0.9 40.0 50% -0.0 12.0 100% 0.7 28.5 100% 0.5 12.5 50% 0.2 38.0 0% -0.2 63.5 50% 0.3 47.0 50% 0.6 28.5 0% -0.2 51.5 0% -0.2 51.5 100% 0.6 27.5 100% 0.2 3.5 50% -0.2 56.0 50% 0.1 39.5