LEADERBOARD

After 6 games of Round 19, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 5

122 39.8038 39.80 24.7992 24.80 76.7296 76.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 5

121 26.5619 26.56 25.0205 25.02 76.1006 76.1%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 6

120 41.4106 41.41 25.3459 25.35 75.4717 75.5%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 5

120 38.6404 38.64 24.4413 24.44 75.4717 75.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 5

118 40.6382 40.64 24.9213 24.92 74.2138 74.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 5

118 39.3654 39.37 25.0135 25.01 74.2138 74.2%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 5

117 40.9513 40.95 24.9684 24.97 73.5849 73.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 5

117 38.4130 38.41 24.9060 24.91 73.5849 73.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 5

117 35.5697 35.57 25.5454 25.55 73.5849 73.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 5

116 41.8046 41.80 25.2844 25.28 72.9560 73.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 5

116 35.2333 35.23 25.3822 25.38 72.9560 73.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 5

115 38.8397 38.84 26.2893 26.29 72.3270 72.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 6

115 38.1935 38.19 25.7862 25.79 72.3270 72.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 5

115 37.1785 37.18 25.7210 25.72 72.3270 72.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 5

114 39.0551 39.06 25.6185 25.62 71.6981 71.7%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 5

114 37.7903 37.79 24.9182 24.92 71.6981 71.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 5

114 29.5296 29.53 25.9430 25.94 †1 72.1519 72.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 5

113 38.0925 38.09 25.0032 25.00 71.0692 71.1%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 5

113 36.7516 36.75 25.2864 25.29 71.0692 71.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 4

113 34.4469 34.45 26.8548 26.85 †2 71.9745 72.0%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 4

113 33.4006 33.40 25.4057 25.41 71.0692 71.1%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 5

112 30.5507 30.55 25.4497 25.45 70.4403 70.4%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 5

111 34.4192 34.42 25.3069 25.31 69.8113 69.8%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 5

110 37.3646 37.36 26.5719 26.57 69.1824 69.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 5

110 35.6709 35.67 25.4843 25.48 69.1824 69.2%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 5

109 34.8565 34.86 26.6478 26.65 68.5535 68.6%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 5

109 30.6825 30.68 26.3845 26.38 68.5535 68.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 4

108 32.7409 32.74 25.5930 25.59 67.9245 67.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 5

108 32.0117 32.01 26.8239 26.82 67.9245 67.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 5

107 32.3953 32.40 25.9667 25.97 †9 71.3333 71.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 5

96 34.8776 34.88 26.2388 26.24 †25 71.6418 71.6%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 72% 2.1 23.0 67% 2.8 31.6 72% 3.5 26.0 83% 5.7 19.3 88% 8.8 27.0 83% 5.8 22.1 67% 2.3 25.9 76% 5.0 25.8 65% -0.5 28.3 71% 3.3 25.6 61% 0.9 24.3 83% 6.1 22.6 78% 2.6 21.5 88% 9.3 22.1 83% 5.5 19.2 94% 7.9 32.3 78% 5.9 23.4 71% 2.5 26.6
Holy Grail Ratings 67% 1.7 21.8 61% 2.4 31.5 72% 2.6 24.7 89% 3.6 18.7 94% 5.5 28.9 72% 3.2 24.7 67% 1.8 23.7 88% 3.8 24.0 65% 1.1 28.7 71% 1.6 26.3 72% 1.5 24.1 83% 3.3 22.3 67% 1.3 22.7 88% 5.5 25.4 89% 3.7 20.9 89% 5.2 32.7 78% 4.3 24.1 59% 0.9 26.0
ZaphBot 72% 4.8 19.2 67% 3.7 31.8 72% 3.8 28.0 89% 7.0 21.1 82% 7.9 28.4 83% 7.7 18.4 56% 0.4 27.3 76% 4.9 24.5 53% -1.2 32.1 76% 1.6 25.6 61% 1.4 25.7 78% 6.6 24.6 72% 0.1 23.6 88% 11.0 22.1 94% 7.5 19.1 100% 9.2 29.6 72% 5.8 26.9 65% 0.6 28.8
Wheelo Ratings 72% 2.7 19.6 56% 2.5 31.5 72% 3.4 25.7 83% 5.2 18.6 88% 8.3 27.4 89% 6.6 21.0 67% 0.9 27.2 76% 4.8 25.7 59% 0.7 28.0 76% 2.5 24.9 61% 0.9 24.5 83% 6.6 21.9 72% 1.2 21.8 88% 9.1 22.3 83% 5.4 19.2 89% 7.5 31.4 78% 6.8 24.3 65% 2.2 25.2
s10 67% 3.8 20.5 61% 3.0 32.1 67% 3.5 25.9 83% 5.9 18.3 88% 7.9 28.3 83% 6.2 21.3 61% 1.5 26.2 71% 4.7 25.9 53% 0.4 29.2 76% 2.5 26.1 56% 1.2 24.2 83% 6.8 22.5 78% 2.2 21.7 88% 9.8 22.4 89% 6.1 19.8 89% 7.4 33.0 78% 6.7 24.9 65% 1.8 26.9
AFLalytics 67% 2.9 21.5 61% 2.5 32.0 67% 3.4 24.9 83% 5.1 19.1 88% 7.4 29.4 78% 5.5 23.4 72% 2.5 25.7 76% 4.2 26.1 71% 1.6 27.4 82% 2.9 27.0 56% 2.3 23.5 83% 6.9 20.5 67% 2.0 21.5 88% 8.9 23.5 78% 5.5 20.4 89% 6.7 34.0 78% 6.7 24.1 53% 1.6 26.7
Punters 67% 3.2 21.1 61% 2.5 32.7 72% 3.8 26.4 78% 5.3 20.3 88% 8.5 29.4 89% 7.9 20.9 67% 1.8 25.6 76% 4.8 25.7 59% 0.4 29.5 76% 2.5 26.3 56% 1.1 24.9 78% 6.1 22.4 67% 1.3 23.0 88% 10.1 20.1 78% 5.5 19.3 94% 8.4 30.0 78% 6.4 25.4 53% 2.5 26.9
Aggregate 67% 3.5 20.3 56% 3.0 32.3 72% 3.7 25.8 83% 5.4 18.4 88% 7.5 28.4 78% 5.9 21.1 61% 1.3 25.6 71% 4.6 25.8 53% 0.2 30.1 76% 2.3 25.6 61% 1.5 24.0 83% 6.2 22.2 78% 1.9 22.4 88% 9.4 22.1 89% 5.9 20.1 83% 6.9 33.3 78% 6.3 24.7 59% 1.5 26.7
Glicko Ratings 72% 2.5 22.2 61% 2.5 32.9 67% 3.8 25.7 78% 5.5 18.5 88% 6.4 29.4 83% 5.7 21.8 67% 1.4 26.6 76% 3.8 27.1 53% 0.5 28.3 71% 1.8 28.1 56% 0.7 24.0 83% 6.0 24.1 78% 1.9 22.7 88% 9.0 23.5 78% 5.6 19.5 89% 6.8 33.3 78% 6.1 25.1 59% 1.0 27.5
Don't Blame the Data 67% 4.3 20.9 56% 3.5 31.8 72% 3.9 25.5 83% 6.0 18.9 88% 8.8 27.8 72% 5.8 23.0 61% 1.3 25.0 71% 5.1 26.0 53% 0.4 29.3 71% 1.5 27.3 61% 0.0 24.9 83% 7.5 23.8 78% 2.3 22.4 88% 10.9 22.5 89% 7.4 19.4 83% 6.9 33.0 78% 6.8 25.9 59% 1.3 28.3
What Snoo Thinks 72% 2.2 21.7 61% 1.2 34.2 78% 5.2 22.1 72% 4.5 19.5 88% 7.2 30.2 72% 4.7 24.9 56% 0.1 26.5 65% 3.9 27.6 53% 1.1 29.0 65% 0.8 27.8 61% 0.3 24.5 83% 6.3 20.9 72% 2.0 22.9 82% 8.5 24.6 94% 6.5 18.9 83% 6.6 33.5 78% 7.1 23.4 76% 2.2 25.1
The Wooden Finger 72% 3.7 22.1 56% 2.6 33.8 72% 4.4 27.6 89% 6.5 19.3 88% 8.0 27.9 78% 5.5 21.1 56% -0.1 27.4 71% 5.5 24.4 53% -0.8 32.2 71% 1.8 28.1 61% 1.1 25.2 83% 7.0 23.7 78% 1.9 26.6 88% 10.1 20.8 89% 6.8 18.9 72% 6.3 37.2 78% 6.6 26.8 47% 0.6 30.4
Informed Stats 72% 4.6 20.4 61% 3.4 33.8 67% 4.8 27.1 78% 5.3 19.9 88% 7.9 25.9 83% 5.5 17.4 61% -0.4 27.9 71% 4.8 25.2 53% -2.2 34.4 71% 3.3 26.4 56% 0.0 25.9 83% 6.5 23.7 72% 0.9 23.6 88% 11.4 21.6 83% 5.5 23.6 83% 6.7 34.2 78% 6.9 26.2 53% 1.6 27.2
AFL Lab 61% 3.8 22.9 56% 2.9 32.1 67% 3.2 28.1 78% 4.9 19.0 88% 7.5 27.4 72% 3.0 26.2 61% 2.6 24.7 76% 5.3 23.9 53% 0.2 28.9 76% 3.2 25.6 67% 3.0 23.7 83% 6.0 23.4 78% 2.1 22.8 88% 9.0 24.4 83% 5.9 20.3 83% 5.9 34.7 78% 5.9 25.0 53% 0.1 30.2
Matter of Stats 67% 4.0 21.7 61% 3.1 31.6 72% 3.6 24.9 83% 5.9 18.4 82% 7.2 31.0 78% 5.6 21.4 61% 1.2 26.8 76% 4.7 25.7 53% -0.3 31.3 71% 2.5 27.9 56% -0.1 25.2 78% 6.2 25.2 61% 2.1 22.4 88% 10.0 18.8 83% 6.3 20.8 94% 7.3 34.4 72% 6.6 25.9 53% 1.9 28.3
Winnable 61% 3.4 20.5 61% 2.1 31.1 56% 1.9 26.6 83% 5.5 18.5 88% 7.6 29.3 83% 5.5 22.5 61% 2.2 24.9 76% 4.8 26.2 53% 1.2 28.1 76% 2.6 25.6 56% 0.9 25.0 83% 7.2 20.3 67% 2.6 20.5 88% 8.4 26.3 67% 4.8 21.8 94% 6.8 33.9 78% 6.6 22.9 59% 1.4 25.2
Cheap Stats 61% 2.3 23.3 56% 2.2 32.8 72% 3.3 24.3 83% 3.3 20.5 82% 5.6 32.2 82% 5.8 23.0 65% 1.4 27.9 65% 3.4 27.7 47% -0.5 31.4 71% 1.0 27.7 56% 1.6 23.3 83% 3.9 23.4 72% 2.5 22.9 82% 7.3 22.3 83% 4.1 20.9 83% 5.4 32.9 83% 5.5 25.1 71% 1.2 25.9
footycharts 67% 3.2 20.8 56% 2.4 32.4 72% 4.6 25.3 78% 5.2 19.2 88% 7.5 29.0 78% 6.6 20.4 72% 2.0 25.2 76% 5.2 24.9 53% 1.1 28.9 71% 2.1 27.9 56% 1.7 24.5 83% 7.1 18.7 67% 0.5 23.3 88% 8.6 24.7 83% 5.8 20.1 83% 7.2 32.3 78% 5.6 24.7 29% -0.1 28.6
Stattraction 67% 3.2 21.1 56% 2.7 33.3 72% 3.5 27.1 89% 6.0 17.4 88% 7.2 28.6 78% 5.4 20.9 56% -0.1 25.6 71% 4.1 27.5 53% -0.3 30.8 65% 1.9 26.2 67% 1.9 23.8 72% 5.8 22.7 67% 2.5 22.7 88% 9.7 21.2 89% 7.1 18.8 72% 5.6 35.5 72% 6.0 24.8 59% 1.1 27.7
The Cruncher 71% 3.7 24.6 56% 2.0 34.6 67% 2.2 26.7 78% 5.3 19.6 88% 7.2 29.6 83% 5.8 22.7 56% -0.1 30.8 65% 3.2 28.7 53% -1.6 29.8 71% 2.0 26.6 56% 0.3 25.1 83% 6.4 23.6 78% 1.9 24.6 88% 9.6 23.0 82% 5.3 22.2 78% 6.7 35.3 78% 6.5 28.3 65% 2.6 27.9
PlusSixOne 67% 2.2 21.6 72% 2.7 32.1 67% 3.4 25.6 78% 4.9 18.8 88% 7.9 25.1 89% 6.9 18.4 61% 0.9 26.2 71% 5.0 23.8 47% -1.6 32.8 71% 2.4 24.7 56% 1.5 24.8 67% 4.3 22.1 61% 0.7 24.3 88% 8.1 24.1 83% 6.2 20.6 83% 6.5 34.3 72% 5.1 27.9 59% -0.3 30.6
The Footycast 61% 2.9 20.8 61% 2.6 31.9 72% 3.3 26.5 78% 4.5 18.8 88% 6.2 27.9 83% 4.9 22.2 56% 0.9 27.1 71% 3.4 26.9 47% -0.8 31.2 71% 1.8 26.4 61% 2.2 23.1 83% 4.2 21.4 67% 0.7 22.7 88% 8.0 23.4 83% 4.9 21.4 78% 5.5 34.5 78% 5.1 24.3 41% 0.5 28.3
HBin 72% 3.2 21.9 61% 4.0 31.2 67% 2.7 28.0 83% 6.1 17.3 88% 6.9 31.1 78% 5.1 22.4 56% 0.3 25.6 71% 5.3 25.7 53% -1.6 31.2 71% 2.1 25.2 50% -0.2 24.9 72% 5.9 22.7 67% 0.0 23.7 88% 10.9 21.9 83% 6.2 20.8 78% 5.6 32.8 72% 4.7 25.6 47% 1.7 23.9
In The Game 67% 4.2 23.3 61% 2.5 33.6 61% 1.9 25.7 83% 6.0 19.7 88% 8.4 29.1 67% 4.9 23.2 50% -0.2 28.5 71% 4.6 26.2 59% -2.7 32.8 65% 2.6 24.2 50% 0.4 26.8 78% 7.6 25.9 61% 0.3 24.7 88% 10.8 19.9 72% 6.3 23.3 89% 10.3 31.6 78% 4.5 32.0 59% 2.2 27.9
Live Ladders 61% 2.8 22.4 44% 2.5 31.9 61% 3.8 23.3 78% 4.5 18.1 88% 7.3 30.0 72% 4.7 24.9 67% 2.8 23.7 65% 3.4 29.4 65% 2.2 28.1 59% 2.2 26.9 67% 2.3 23.5 89% 5.9 21.8 67% 1.7 22.4 88% 7.9 26.2 72% 4.8 22.2 78% 5.8 33.7 83% 6.0 24.5 41% 0.6 26.5
Graft 61% 3.2 25.6 50% 2.7 33.5 72% 3.8 30.1 78% 5.1 21.1 88% 6.4 30.5 78% 5.4 18.6 50% 0.7 27.2 59% 3.7 26.9 59% 1.1 30.0 65% 1.9 27.7 61% 2.5 25.9 78% 5.5 21.8 72% 1.2 26.1 88% 8.7 20.8 89% 5.2 22.9 72% 5.9 33.9 72% 6.1 27.2 41% 0.8 30.2
AFL Scorigami 67% 3.7 22.3 50% 0.0 34.3 78% 3.6 24.4 78% 3.6 20.2 76% 6.4 31.4 72% 5.5 24.2 50% -1.1 30.0 59% 4.2 26.7 53% -2.4 30.6 65% 1.7 26.8 61% 1.0 24.9 83% 5.9 23.5 72% 1.9 22.7 88% 9.2 24.0 78% 4.8 22.5 78% 5.7 34.5 72% 5.6 26.1 53% 1.9 26.2
Squiggle 67% 2.3 20.8 56% 2.8 31.5 50% 2.5 27.0 72% 4.5 19.5 88% 5.4 30.7 78% 5.2 23.0 50% 0.8 27.0 71% 3.6 27.0 53% 1.5 26.7 71% 2.2 27.3 50% 0.9 25.9 83% 5.9 22.4 67% 1.7 20.9 88% 8.6 24.1 72% 5.0 20.2 83% 6.3 34.3 78% 5.9 25.5 47% 0.4 27.5
Elo Predicts! 61% 3.4 23.1 61% 2.8 33.0 67% 2.3 25.8 72% 5.2 20.8 76% 6.9 27.9 72% 5.1 21.4 50% 0.3 26.1 71% 4.1 30.1 59% -0.9 33.1 71% 1.5 24.3 61% 1.3 25.2 72% 5.0 29.4 67% 0.6 25.0 88% 9.1 23.9 83% 5.5 20.4 78% 5.5 34.3 72% 6.0 30.0 41% 0.4 29.4
Hyperion 69% 2.9 23.8 53% 2.3 31.3 69% 2.0 29.9 76% 4.7 17.4 88% 7.8 27.3 82% 7.7 19.3 71% 1.5 27.1 69% 4.7 25.4 59% -1.6 33.4 75% 2.6 25.5 53% 1.2 24.8 82% 5.6 26.1 65% 0.6 25.4 88% 9.3 20.2 78% 4.8 21.8 76% 5.0 31.6 76% 4.6 23.8 56% -1.0 33.9
Massey Ratings 64% 3.5 24.4 50% 2.4 33.4 73% 3.0 28.9 81% 5.5 18.1 86% 6.5 27.9 80% 4.9 22.4 56% 0.6 28.5 71% 3.6 26.9 53% -0.7 31.6 67% 1.5 28.4 57% 1.7 23.6 87% 7.1 26.1 67% 2.8 21.1 86% 8.8 21.1 87% 5.9 22.9 88% 5.8 31.6 86% 6.8 24.1 53% 0.2 30.2