LEADERBOARD

After Round 25, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 5 0

157 50.9997 51.00 25.1795 25.18 75.1196 75.1%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 6 0

157 35.0217 35.02 25.3779 25.38 75.1196 75.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 6 0

155 53.4210 53.42 25.0091 25.01 74.1627 74.2%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6 1

155 52.7152 52.72 25.1215 25.12 74.1627 74.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 6 0

154 51.2429 51.24 25.9426 25.94 73.6842 73.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 0

154 50.6983 50.70 24.7356 24.74 73.6842 73.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 5 0

154 48.1062 48.11 25.4617 25.46 73.6842 73.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0

153 50.9049 50.90 25.0442 25.04 73.2057 73.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

153 48.8410 48.84 25.6301 25.63 †2 73.9130 73.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 5 0

152 52.2544 52.25 24.8785 24.88 72.7273 72.7%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 6 0

152 49.7369 49.74 25.7895 25.79 72.7273 72.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0

151 54.1896 54.19 25.5519 25.55 72.2488 72.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0

151 52.3147 52.31 26.1579 26.16 72.2488 72.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 6 1

150 40.0433 40.04 26.2692 26.27 †1 72.1154 72.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0

149 52.0978 52.10 25.6715 25.67 71.2919 71.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 1

149 50.0383 50.04 25.2375 25.24 71.2919 71.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 7 0

149 47.9752 47.98 25.3569 25.36 71.2919 71.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 5 1

149 46.9045 46.90 24.9512 24.95 71.2919 71.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 6 1

149 46.5120 46.51 26.0977 26.10 71.2919 71.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 6 1

149 41.3749 41.37 25.6713 25.67 71.2919 71.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0

148 50.1885 50.19 25.3210 25.32 70.8134 70.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 5 0

148 49.7044 49.70 25.4766 25.48 70.8134 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 6 0

147 49.2452 49.25 26.1303 26.13 †4 71.7073 71.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 6 1

145 48.4696 48.47 26.4731 26.47 69.3780 69.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 5 1

145 46.4337 46.43 26.3541 26.35 69.3780 69.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 5 1

145 46.3183 46.32 26.5502 26.55 69.3780 69.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 5 1

145 46.2366 46.24 25.8708 25.87 69.3780 69.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 6 1

145 43.7674 43.77 25.9550 25.95 †9 72.5000 72.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 6 0

143 40.5401 40.54 26.9050 26.91 68.4211 68.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 6 0

141 42.9096 42.91 26.1212 26.12 67.4641 67.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 6 1

133 46.3082 46.31 26.3043 26.30 †25 72.2826 72.3%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 74% 4.1 25.3 70% 4.4 34.6 67% 2.6 29.0 75% 5.0 21.5 83% 10.5 27.0 78% 7.3 21.1 65% 3.6 24.0 74% 5.4 22.1 65% -0.8 27.8 78% 6.9 27.3 54% -0.5 25.1 83% 7.6 22.6 78% 5.0 23.1 87% 13.2 21.9 83% 6.0 21.3 96% 10.7 32.8 78% 8.6 22.4 67% 2.5 24.5
Holy Grail Ratings 70% 3.2 24.8 65% 3.3 35.1 67% 2.2 27.2 83% 3.6 19.9 91% 7.4 28.2 70% 4.4 23.7 70% 3.2 21.8 78% 3.8 21.5 61% 0.6 29.4 78% 3.8 27.3 62% 1.0 25.1 83% 4.3 21.4 70% 2.4 26.0 91% 8.5 23.9 87% 4.0 22.6 91% 6.8 32.9 83% 6.3 22.5 54% 1.1 23.6
s10 70% 6.0 23.2 65% 4.1 35.8 58% 2.2 29.0 79% 5.9 20.1 87% 10.3 26.6 78% 7.7 20.2 70% 4.0 23.1 65% 4.5 22.9 57% 0.0 28.3 83% 5.9 27.8 54% 0.4 24.9 83% 8.6 22.3 83% 4.7 23.3 91% 14.0 21.9 83% 6.8 21.3 91% 10.3 32.4 83% 9.8 22.7 58% 1.6 24.5
Punters 70% 5.5 23.5 65% 3.8 35.5 67% 2.6 29.7 79% 5.3 21.2 87% 10.3 27.9 83% 9.7 20.2 74% 4.3 22.6 70% 4.2 22.9 61% -0.4 28.9 83% 6.0 27.0 54% 0.8 24.6 78% 7.2 23.5 74% 3.7 23.5 87% 14.1 21.0 78% 5.9 21.0 96% 10.8 31.0 78% 9.0 23.3 54% 2.5 24.8
ZaphBot 74% 6.9 22.2 65% 4.9 35.2 62% 2.0 31.2 79% 6.9 22.6 83% 10.2 28.2 78% 7.6 20.1 61% 3.1 25.3 74% 4.7 21.7 52% -2.7 31.3 78% 5.0 28.5 58% -0.8 27.1 78% 8.2 24.3 74% 2.3 26.6 87% 15.2 21.7 87% 8.0 20.3 100% 12.0 29.5 74% 8.9 25.1 62% 0.1 25.9
Wheelo Ratings 74% 5.1 22.1 57% 3.3 35.4 62% 1.8 29.5 75% 4.8 21.0 87% 10.5 25.8 83% 8.6 19.7 70% 3.1 23.9 65% 4.5 23.1 61% 0.4 27.3 78% 5.5 26.8 54% -0.0 24.8 83% 8.5 21.7 78% 4.1 22.4 91% 13.2 22.0 78% 6.1 21.0 91% 10.2 31.9 83% 9.8 22.3 58% 1.7 24.4
Glicko Ratings 74% 4.8 24.6 65% 3.5 36.0 62% 2.9 28.8 71% 5.4 20.7 83% 8.6 28.0 83% 7.9 19.7 70% 3.6 23.8 70% 3.4 24.1 57% 0.7 27.3 78% 5.1 28.8 58% -0.1 24.5 83% 7.7 23.9 78% 4.7 22.7 91% 13.0 23.0 78% 6.4 21.1 91% 9.7 32.6 83% 9.2 22.8 54% -0.1 26.1
Aggregate 70% 5.6 23.3 61% 4.0 36.2 62% 2.7 28.5 79% 5.5 19.9 87% 9.8 26.8 74% 7.3 20.3 70% 4.0 22.4 65% 4.4 22.9 57% -0.3 29.3 83% 5.6 27.3 58% 1.0 24.5 83% 7.9 22.1 83% 4.1 24.4 87% 13.4 21.6 83% 6.5 21.5 87% 9.6 32.7 78% 9.1 22.8 54% 1.5 24.3
What Snoo Thinks 74% 4.1 25.0 65% 2.1 38.7 78% 5.2 24.6 74% 5.2 20.6 87% 9.7 28.4 70% 6.1 24.2 65% 3.5 22.7 61% 3.3 25.5 61% 1.7 27.4 70% 3.7 29.5 57% -0.5 25.4 83% 8.1 21.7 78% 3.8 26.2 83% 12.9 22.5 91% 7.6 19.9 87% 9.3 32.8 78% 9.8 22.5 70% 2.0 23.8
AFLalytics 70% 4.7 24.3 61% 3.7 35.2 58% 2.3 28.2 71% 4.8 21.3 87% 9.9 27.1 74% 7.3 21.8 74% 4.7 22.9 65% 3.9 23.4 70% 1.6 26.2 87% 6.4 27.8 50% 1.9 24.3 83% 8.6 20.6 74% 4.0 23.5 91% 13.3 22.0 74% 6.2 21.9 91% 9.5 31.9 83% 10.0 21.3 50% 1.9 24.2
Informed Stats 74% 6.5 24.0 61% 3.9 38.0 62% 3.5 30.5 75% 5.3 20.9 87% 9.9 24.9 78% 6.3 17.8 70% 2.4 24.1 70% 5.0 22.1 52% -3.3 33.2 74% 6.6 27.3 54% -0.9 26.1 83% 8.5 23.9 74% 3.1 24.8 91% 15.7 20.7 83% 6.1 24.0 87% 9.5 33.8 83% 9.7 23.4 54% 1.6 24.8
Don't Blame the Data 70% 6.5 23.9 61% 4.5 36.2 62% 2.4 28.5 79% 6.1 20.5 87% 11.3 26.2 70% 7.2 22.1 70% 4.2 22.0 61% 4.7 23.4 57% -0.3 28.8 78% 5.1 28.6 54% -1.1 25.7 83% 9.2 23.7 83% 4.7 25.3 87% 15.3 21.7 83% 8.1 21.1 87% 9.6 32.9 78% 10.0 24.1 54% 0.8 25.4
The Wooden Finger 74% 5.8 25.1 61% 3.4 38.0 62% 3.5 29.7 83% 6.5 20.3 87% 10.6 27.1 74% 7.1 20.5 65% 3.3 23.6 65% 5.1 22.2 52% -1.5 31.0 78% 4.9 29.0 58% 1.1 24.9 83% 9.4 22.8 78% 4.0 29.2 91% 14.3 20.9 83% 7.4 20.3 78% 9.3 35.3 83% 9.5 24.3 46% 0.9 26.8
Cheap Stats 65% 4.3 25.0 61% 3.2 36.5 71% 2.8 27.0 79% 3.7 21.2 83% 7.5 30.6 77% 6.7 22.7 68% 3.6 25.7 61% 3.2 24.7 48% -1.4 31.0 78% 3.8 29.8 54% 1.4 23.9 83% 4.8 24.8 74% 4.4 24.8 83% 10.7 22.4 83% 5.0 21.7 87% 7.5 33.1 83% 7.6 24.3 62% 1.2 23.9
Matter of Stats 70% 6.5 24.2 65% 4.4 35.4 62% 2.4 28.0 79% 6.4 19.9 83% 10.1 28.5 74% 7.0 20.1 70% 4.0 23.0 70% 4.1 23.2 52% -1.2 30.4 78% 6.1 29.2 54% -0.8 25.5 78% 8.3 24.8 65% 4.7 25.2 87% 14.0 20.1 78% 7.2 21.5 96% 10.2 33.8 74% 9.5 23.7 50% 1.3 25.7
Winnable 65% 5.8 23.2 61% 3.0 35.4 54% 1.3 29.0 79% 5.3 20.4 87% 10.1 26.9 78% 7.4 21.1 70% 4.8 21.6 65% 4.2 23.6 52% 0.7 27.9 78% 5.6 28.3 54% 0.4 25.2 83% 9.4 20.0 70% 4.6 23.4 91% 12.6 25.4 65% 5.4 23.0 96% 9.5 33.5 83% 9.3 22.3 54% 0.7 24.0
HBin 74% 5.4 24.3 65% 4.9 34.9 67% 2.2 29.7 75% 5.7 19.3 87% 8.6 28.8 78% 7.4 21.0 61% 3.0 23.1 70% 5.4 22.5 57% -2.9 30.3 78% 5.4 28.1 50% -0.3 24.7 74% 8.1 22.6 74% 3.5 24.2 87% 15.0 22.6 83% 7.5 21.4 83% 9.1 31.4 74% 7.8 24.0 50% 0.4 23.4
PlusSixOne 70% 4.4 23.8 70% 4.1 34.9 67% 2.8 27.6 67% 4.3 21.2 87% 10.5 24.3 83% 7.9 18.6 61% 2.8 23.4 70% 5.8 20.6 48% -1.4 30.4 78% 6.0 25.2 54% 1.3 25.2 70% 5.3 21.4 65% 3.0 24.9 91% 12.4 22.4 83% 6.8 22.0 87% 9.7 31.7 78% 8.6 24.9 58% -0.5 26.5
AFL Lab 65% 5.8 26.1 61% 4.1 35.8 58% 2.2 30.5 79% 5.1 20.1 87% 9.5 26.1 74% 5.1 23.8 70% 5.2 22.0 65% 4.4 22.6 52% -0.8 29.4 83% 6.3 26.8 58% 1.2 25.9 83% 7.5 22.8 74% 3.3 26.0 87% 12.7 23.6 74% 6.0 22.5 83% 8.1 34.1 78% 8.0 24.5 54% -0.6 27.3
The Footycast 65% 4.6 24.0 65% 3.4 36.3 71% 2.8 28.7 75% 4.5 20.3 87% 8.3 26.7 78% 6.1 21.6 65% 3.3 23.6 70% 4.0 23.1 43% -1.1 30.5 78% 4.5 28.0 62% 1.8 24.0 83% 5.9 20.9 70% 2.3 25.5 87% 11.5 23.0 83% 5.4 23.0 78% 7.4 34.0 78% 7.5 23.3 46% 0.5 25.6
Stattraction 70% 5.3 23.9 61% 3.7 37.3 62% 1.9 30.1 83% 6.4 19.0 87% 9.9 26.7 74% 6.5 20.4 65% 3.6 22.2 65% 3.8 24.5 52% -0.5 29.5 74% 5.1 27.7 62% 1.6 23.9 74% 8.1 22.5 70% 4.7 25.3 87% 13.6 21.5 83% 8.0 20.1 78% 8.9 33.1 74% 8.7 23.5 54% 1.1 24.8
footycharts 70% 5.1 25.1 57% 3.3 36.7 62% 3.9 28.1 71% 4.7 20.9 87% 9.8 27.1 74% 8.3 20.6 78% 4.9 21.9 70% 4.5 22.9 52% -0.3 28.9 78% 5.5 29.0 54% 0.9 25.1 83% 9.4 19.4 70% 2.2 26.3 91% 12.9 23.8 78% 6.0 21.8 87% 9.8 32.3 83% 8.7 22.6 33% -0.3 26.2
The Cruncher 73% 6.0 27.0 57% 2.6 37.5 54% -0.6 30.9 74% 5.2 21.2 87% 9.8 27.7 78% 7.4 21.2 65% 2.6 26.9 59% 3.7 24.4 57% -0.5 27.1 74% 5.5 27.2 54% -0.4 24.9 83% 8.5 23.2 83% 5.1 23.5 91% 14.2 22.4 81% 6.8 22.2 83% 10.5 32.9 83% 10.1 24.3 58% 2.2 25.3
In The Game 70% 6.3 26.1 61% 3.2 37.1 50% -1.4 31.0 83% 5.3 21.7 87% 10.1 27.9 65% 6.5 22.3 61% 2.9 24.6 61% 3.8 23.6 61% -3.6 31.2 70% 5.6 26.1 50% 0.2 26.3 78% 9.9 24.1 70% 3.0 25.0 87% 15.0 20.4 70% 7.1 24.0 91% 13.6 30.8 78% 6.9 29.4 58% 2.5 25.0
Graft 65% 4.8 28.4 52% 3.4 37.6 67% 3.4 31.2 75% 5.1 22.2 87% 8.6 28.2 74% 6.9 18.1 61% 3.6 23.0 57% 3.2 24.7 57% 0.7 29.3 74% 4.7 28.3 58% 2.4 25.5 78% 7.3 21.8 74% 2.6 27.7 87% 12.4 20.8 87% 5.7 23.7 78% 8.2 32.8 74% 8.7 24.7 46% 1.1 26.5
Elo Predicts! 65% 5.5 25.2 61% 3.5 38.3 67% 1.7 27.6 67% 5.5 23.0 78% 9.1 26.8 70% 6.4 22.3 61% 3.6 23.1 61% 3.9 26.1 61% -0.9 31.3 78% 5.0 25.0 58% 1.4 23.6 74% 6.5 28.5 74% 2.8 26.9 91% 13.5 22.5 83% 6.9 20.0 83% 8.4 33.5 78% 9.7 27.1 42% 0.2 27.2
Live Ladders 65% 4.7 25.6 48% 3.7 36.4 58% 3.7 25.4 71% 4.5 19.3 87% 9.4 28.8 70% 6.1 24.0 70% 4.8 22.2 57% 2.6 26.4 65% 1.1 28.8 70% 5.1 28.0 58% 1.3 24.7 87% 7.3 20.9 74% 3.4 25.7 87% 11.7 25.5 74% 5.5 23.3 83% 8.2 33.2 83% 8.5 23.7 46% 0.8 24.0
Hyperion 71% 4.9 26.3 55% 3.3 36.1 64% 0.7 32.2 70% 4.6 20.3 86% 9.8 26.6 77% 8.3 19.6 73% 3.5 25.0 64% 4.5 22.9 61% -2.2 31.3 82% 6.0 26.8 52% 0.5 25.3 82% 6.1 25.5 73% 3.0 26.4 91% 13.5 20.2 78% 5.7 22.7 82% 8.0 30.0 82% 8.1 21.3 65% -1.0 29.0
AFL Scorigami 70% 5.4 25.2 57% 0.9 38.2 67% 2.0 27.8 75% 3.7 21.5 78% 8.5 29.3 70% 6.8 23.3 61% 1.7 26.4 57% 4.7 23.7 52% -3.9 30.8 74% 4.7 29.3 58% 0.3 26.0 83% 7.5 23.2 78% 4.1 25.7 87% 12.7 24.7 70% 4.6 24.8 74% 7.4 35.2 74% 8.3 25.3 50% 1.7 24.2
Squiggle 70% 4.3 24.3 57% 3.2 37.0 46% 2.0 29.0 71% 4.3 21.1 87% 7.8 29.0 74% 6.8 21.5 61% 3.6 23.3 65% 2.9 24.6 52% 0.4 27.9 74% 4.9 28.6 46% 0.8 25.6 83% 7.6 22.1 65% 2.5 25.7 87% 12.5 23.7 70% 5.0 22.6 87% 8.4 35.0 78% 8.2 24.7 46% 0.7 24.6
Massey Ratings 68% 5.5 27.4 57% 3.3 37.8 62% 0.8 31.8 82% 5.9 19.8 85% 8.9 26.1 75% 5.9 21.5 67% 3.6 24.6 70% 3.5 22.8 52% -1.8 30.9 76% 5.1 29.6 55% 0.6 24.8 85% 8.1 25.8 70% 5.0 24.9 85% 13.3 21.1 80% 6.3 24.1 90% 8.7 31.5 84% 10.2 22.0 59% -0.5 26.0