LEADERBOARD

After 6 games of Round 6, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 6

42 14.3733 14.37 23.7386 23.74 82.3529 82.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 6

41 14.4981 14.50 25.6575 25.66 80.3922 80.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 6

41 8.5484 8.55 25.2384 25.24 80.3922 80.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 6

40 13.8141 13.81 25.2284 25.23 78.4314 78.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 6

39 14.3169 14.32 26.2073 26.21 76.4706 76.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 6

39 14.0589 14.06 25.1937 25.19 76.4706 76.5%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 6

39 13.4675 13.47 25.1622 25.16 76.4706 76.5%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 6

39 12.3071 12.31 25.3825 25.38 76.4706 76.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 5

38 14.4287 14.43 25.5812 25.58 74.5098 74.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 6

38 13.6267 13.63 24.7688 24.77 74.5098 74.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 6

38 12.2314 12.23 26.2049 26.20 74.5098 74.5%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 5

38 12.1179 12.12 27.1373 27.14 74.5098 74.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 6

38 11.8070 11.81 26.0865 26.09 74.5098 74.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 6

38 11.4209 11.42 25.2314 25.23 74.5098 74.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 5

37 11.8777 11.88 25.6204 25.62 72.5490 72.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 5

37 11.3673 11.37 27.7059 27.71 72.5490 72.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 6

37 11.1677 11.17 26.3137 26.31 72.5490 72.5%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 6

37 8.8533 8.85 26.5510 26.55 72.5490 72.5%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 6

37 7.6480 7.65 27.4314 27.43 72.5490 72.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 6

36 13.8933 13.89 26.4506 26.45 70.5882 70.6%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 6

35 13.3740 13.37 25.8667 25.87 68.6275 68.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 6

35 12.1865 12.19 27.8235 27.82 68.6275 68.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 5

34 11.8654 11.87 26.0122 26.01 66.6667 66.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 6

34 10.7430 10.74 27.1125 27.11 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 5

34 10.6742 10.67 25.5922 25.59 66.6667 66.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 5

34 10.2836 10.28 29.5882 29.59 66.6667 66.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 6

34 9.1901 9.19 26.8353 26.84 66.6667 66.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 6

34 7.9576 7.96 27.2373 27.24 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 5

30 8.0987 8.10 27.6471 27.65 58.8235 58.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 6

28 5.3287 5.33 27.3810 27.38 †9 66.6667 66.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 6

17 6.0775 6.08 30.4615 30.46 †25 65.3846 65.4%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Wheelo Ratings 83% 1.0 8.8 80% 1.3 24.7 83% 1.9 16.5 83% 1.2 13.7 83% 2.3 33.2 100% 2.3 9.6 100% 2.5 25.7 83% 2.0 33.3 83% 2.2 23.9 83% 2.1 21.2 40% -1.4 34.9 60% 1.2 19.6 83% 1.2 28.4 100% 3.1 22.5 83% 0.4 10.8 100% 2.7 37.2 60% 1.1 31.7 83% 1.7 31.8
Drop Kick Data 83% 1.1 13.2 80% 1.4 27.3 83% 1.9 16.3 83% 0.9 17.7 83% 2.0 34.4 100% 2.4 11.3 100% 2.8 29.2 83% 2.0 33.8 67% 1.9 26.2 83% 2.6 23.4 40% -1.5 34.8 60% 0.9 22.3 83% 1.5 29.9 100% 2.8 24.3 67% 0.4 10.2 100% 2.8 38.3 60% 0.9 34.5 83% 2.1 34.8
Holy Grail Ratings 67% 0.5 10.2 80% 0.5 25.3 83% 0.9 15.6 83% 1.1 17.2 83% 1.3 33.4 80% 1.2 19.0 83% 1.4 25.2 100% 1.8 29.5 83% 1.1 28.3 83% 1.3 22.1 80% -0.1 29.0 60% 0.5 19.3 67% 0.5 32.8 80% 1.0 34.0 83% 0.5 13.1 100% 1.6 37.4 60% 1.0 33.8 83% 0.9 30.5
Glicko Ratings 83% 1.2 12.0 80% 1.2 27.4 67% 1.6 20.9 83% 1.2 15.1 83% 2.0 30.6 100% 2.2 10.2 100% 2.5 28.8 83% 1.7 31.2 67% 1.9 24.0 83% 2.3 24.9 20% -1.1 33.8 60% 0.5 22.4 83% 1.0 33.5 100% 3.3 22.4 67% 0.8 10.4 100% 2.5 40.7 60% 1.3 32.2 83% 1.5 33.2
Don't Blame the Data 67% 1.2 10.7 60% 0.9 28.6 83% 2.1 20.7 83% 1.5 18.1 83% 2.2 34.5 80% 2.1 14.0 83% 2.6 27.6 67% 1.9 32.4 67% 1.7 26.5 83% 2.5 23.6 60% -1.3 32.4 60% 0.6 20.7 83% 0.7 33.1 100% 3.7 23.5 83% 1.4 13.4 83% 2.0 44.3 60% 0.9 34.1 83% 2.0 32.8
s10 67% 1.4 11.0 80% 1.2 26.1 67% 1.7 19.1 83% 1.4 14.3 83% 2.2 32.4 80% 2.0 11.9 83% 2.3 27.9 67% 1.9 32.7 67% 1.8 26.1 83% 2.3 23.7 40% -1.1 33.5 60% 0.8 18.9 83% 0.9 32.2 100% 3.2 24.1 83% 0.7 12.5 100% 2.4 40.3 60% 1.2 32.1 83% 1.7 34.0
AFLalytics 67% 0.8 13.2 80% 1.1 25.0 67% 1.5 18.1 83% 0.9 14.7 83% 2.3 31.0 80% 1.9 13.1 100% 2.7 27.1 83% 2.0 32.0 83% 1.8 25.6 100% 2.6 25.0 20% -0.7 31.9 60% 1.2 15.0 67% 0.8 33.1 100% 2.8 26.3 50% 0.0 16.2 100% 2.3 41.7 60% 1.3 31.6 83% 1.6 30.9
Aggregate 67% 1.1 10.5 60% 1.1 26.1 83% 1.7 18.5 83% 1.3 15.1 83% 2.0 31.9 80% 1.7 13.3 83% 2.0 25.9 67% 1.9 32.3 67% 1.4 28.8 83% 2.1 22.7 60% -0.9 32.7 60% 0.6 19.6 83% 0.6 33.2 100% 3.0 24.4 83% 0.7 13.5 83% 2.0 41.2 60% 1.1 32.6 83% 1.2 34.0
Matter of Stats 67% 2.0 10.8 80% 0.9 25.6 83% 1.8 16.9 83% 1.7 14.8 83% 2.2 36.2 80% 1.5 13.8 83% 2.1 28.3 83% 2.2 30.2 67% 1.8 26.6 83% 2.6 25.3 60% -0.8 32.4 40% 0.3 20.0 50% 0.8 34.3 100% 3.5 15.6 67% 1.0 12.6 100% 2.0 42.4 60% 1.4 33.5 67% 1.9 39.1
Punters 67% 1.4 10.4 80% 1.2 23.9 83% 2.1 16.8 67% 1.2 15.5 83% 2.3 36.7 100% 2.4 10.1 100% 2.8 21.5 83% 2.3 30.6 67% 1.8 25.6 83% 2.1 23.2 40% -1.6 36.5 40% 0.3 23.5 67% 0.5 31.7 100% 3.5 21.0 50% -0.2 14.8 100% 3.2 33.8 60% 0.8 33.3 67% 1.2 36.9
AFL Lab 50% 0.5 17.3 60% 0.8 30.2 83% 1.2 22.4 67% 0.9 13.2 83% 1.8 32.7 60% 1.0 17.3 83% 2.4 30.5 83% 2.3 31.0 67% 1.6 27.0 83% 2.3 21.5 80% -0.0 26.1 60% 0.5 22.9 83% 0.9 32.1 100% 2.9 24.6 83% 0.9 11.6 83% 1.6 44.5 60% 1.5 33.1 67% 1.3 33.3
ZaphBot 67% 1.8 11.2 80% 1.1 24.6 83% 2.3 22.3 83% 2.3 22.2 83% 1.6 32.0 80% 2.2 15.0 67% 1.2 30.8 67% 1.4 35.5 67% 0.9 30.3 83% 1.7 24.3 60% -0.9 31.2 40% -0.1 25.2 67% -0.3 34.5 100% 3.6 24.4 83% 1.3 18.2 100% 2.9 34.2 60% 0.8 34.2 67% 0.6 37.0
footycharts 50% 0.6 12.6 60% 0.7 26.9 83% 1.8 17.0 83% 1.5 15.4 83% 2.1 30.1 80% 1.8 14.5 100% 2.4 26.0 83% 2.2 32.5 67% 1.6 29.0 67% 2.2 25.0 60% -0.5 29.9 80% 1.2 14.7 67% -0.0 35.4 100% 2.5 28.2 67% 0.3 16.4 83% 1.8 43.8 80% 0.7 36.0 50% 0.8 34.9
What Snoo Thinks 67% 0.1 10.6 100% 1.0 25.9 83% 2.0 11.8 83% 1.2 15.9 83% 1.6 30.4 80% 1.1 20.2 83% 2.0 26.7 50% 1.3 35.3 67% 1.6 28.8 67% 2.1 24.5 60% -0.3 28.4 60% 1.1 14.4 67% 0.5 33.4 80% 1.7 30.8 83% 0.5 12.4 83% 2.0 41.5 60% 1.7 32.6 83% 1.7 30.6
AFL Scorigami 67% 1.3 10.7 60% 0.5 22.8 100% 1.4 18.7 83% 0.6 17.8 67% 2.2 31.0 80% 1.8 17.8 67% 1.9 31.2 50% 2.0 30.9 83% 1.1 29.8 83% 2.4 20.2 60% -0.2 31.8 60% 0.3 18.0 83% 1.0 27.7 100% 3.1 24.5 83% 1.1 11.0 67% 0.8 46.3 60% 0.9 34.0 50% 1.5 36.2
The Wooden Finger 83% 1.1 13.0 60% 0.9 27.4 83% 2.3 19.5 100% 2.2 15.2 83% 1.8 35.3 80% 1.4 15.2 67% 1.5 28.8 50% 2.1 34.3 67% 0.6 31.5 67% 2.0 25.7 60% -0.9 30.0 60% 0.8 22.2 83% 0.0 38.2 100% 3.0 21.6 83% 1.0 15.0 67% 1.1 47.0 60% 0.7 38.2 50% 1.0 38.7
Live Ladders 50% 0.6 11.8 40% 0.3 28.6 83% 1.7 16.5 83% 1.3 16.0 83% 1.9 29.8 80% 1.6 16.8 83% 2.2 25.2 67% 1.6 35.3 67% 1.3 31.5 83% 2.3 23.3 60% -0.4 30.4 80% 0.9 15.6 67% 0.7 33.3 100% 2.0 32.6 50% 0.2 15.0 83% 1.7 44.2 80% 1.5 34.4 67% 0.8 33.3
HBin 67% 1.3 11.6 100% 2.0 20.8 67% 1.2 22.7 83% 1.3 14.9 83% 0.6 34.3 80% 1.3 14.3 67% 1.7 25.4 50% 1.1 36.3 83% 1.6 29.5 67% 1.5 25.0 40% -3.4 37.1 40% 0.2 20.5 67% -0.7 36.5 100% 3.6 25.5 83% 1.0 12.1 83% 1.8 43.1 60% -0.0 36.3 83% 1.5 31.1
Cheap Stats 50% 0.4 15.7 80% 0.7 25.2 83% 1.1 15.2 83% 0.2 22.2 67% 0.9 37.8 80% 1.7 19.0 100% 2.2 25.7 67% 1.6 34.5 67% 0.5 33.0 83% 1.1 25.3 40% -0.8 34.2 60% -0.1 21.0 67% 1.0 31.2 80% 1.7 27.4 67% -0.2 17.5 83% 1.9 37.5 80% 1.1 36.4 67% 0.4 34.8
The Cruncher 67% 1.5 15.2 80% 1.8 25.1 67% 1.7 19.0 83% 1.1 15.8 83% 2.1 33.8 80% 2.0 12.7 83% 2.4 28.3 50% 1.5 34.6 67% 1.7 26.6 67% 2.2 26.9 20% -1.6 35.2 60% 0.9 19.7 83% 0.9 34.1 100% 3.3 23.8 67% 0.6 14.7 83% 2.3 43.1 60% 1.3 32.1 67% 2.2 33.8
In The Game 67% 1.5 16.0 80% 1.2 28.6 67% 1.9 16.9 83% 1.3 14.5 83% 2.2 36.0 80% 1.7 12.8 67% 2.7 33.0 67% 2.6 29.9 83% 2.3 24.6 67% 2.3 18.7 0% -2.9 39.9 40% 0.4 26.1 50% -0.1 30.9 100% 4.0 15.2 67% 0.9 15.8 100% 3.8 30.8 60% 0.0 40.0 67% 1.0 37.1
Informed Stats 50% 1.1 14.5 60% 1.0 31.0 67% 1.9 23.7 83% 1.5 18.5 83% 1.9 32.8 80% 1.9 7.6 83% 1.6 25.7 50% 1.6 35.3 67% 0.8 32.2 83% 2.7 25.0 40% -1.6 36.0 60% 0.6 25.4 67% 1.1 32.3 100% 3.8 19.4 67% 1.1 17.3 67% 1.6 47.5 60% 0.7 41.0 67% 1.2 34.5
Winnable 50% 0.9 11.2 80% 0.7 26.9 50% 0.5 24.0 50% 0.7 17.2 83% 2.2 32.3 80% 1.9 14.3 83% 2.2 26.1 67% 1.6 36.7 67% 2.3 25.3 83% 2.1 22.3 20% -1.5 35.5 60% 1.5 13.6 67% 1.3 26.6 100% 2.6 32.8 33% 0.1 15.8 100% 2.1 42.3 60% 1.5 32.9 67% 1.0 32.7
Stattraction 67% 1.2 10.4 60% 0.9 26.7 83% 2.0 20.8 83% 1.9 17.2 83% 1.6 36.9 80% 1.4 14.5 67% 1.4 25.3 50% 1.9 34.6 67% 1.1 30.0 50% 0.9 27.4 60% -1.1 33.4 40% 0.3 22.0 50% 0.4 34.3 100% 3.1 24.2 67% 1.3 14.0 67% 1.0 46.2 60% 1.2 32.4 67% 1.0 36.2
Squiggle 67% 0.5 8.8 80% 1.6 22.8 50% 1.0 21.6 83% 1.3 12.3 83% 1.9 31.2 80% 1.5 12.4 67% 1.1 28.9 67% 1.1 35.8 67% 1.9 25.6 67% 1.4 27.1 20% -1.2 35.0 60% 0.9 18.2 67% 0.8 31.4 100% 2.9 26.1 50% 0.5 11.4 83% 1.7 42.1 60% 1.5 34.8 50% 0.9 34.4
Graft 50% 0.6 21.7 60% 0.8 27.6 83% 2.0 25.2 83% 1.7 18.7 83% 2.0 35.8 80% 1.1 16.0 50% 1.3 32.5 50% 1.7 36.3 83% 1.1 27.3 67% 1.6 27.5 60% -0.5 31.0 60% 0.5 21.0 67% 0.1 39.0 100% 2.8 19.2 67% 0.4 25.3 67% 1.3 45.5 60% 1.2 39.4 33% 0.8 39.7
The Footycast 50% 1.0 11.8 60% 0.5 25.7 83% 1.5 20.5 67% 1.4 19.0 83% 1.8 26.6 80% 1.5 15.0 83% 1.5 29.1 50% 1.3 32.7 50% 0.4 34.6 67% 1.9 22.1 60% -0.2 29.3 60% 0.1 20.8 67% -0.1 33.4 100% 2.7 26.9 67% 0.8 15.4 67% 1.3 46.2 60% 0.4 36.9 50% 0.5 36.1
PlusSixOne 50% 0.3 11.8 80% 0.5 26.6 67% 1.7 16.9 83% 1.3 19.8 83% 1.7 28.1 80% 1.5 11.0 83% 1.4 25.2 50% 1.1 35.4 67% 0.6 35.6 67% 1.5 24.7 40% -0.4 30.2 40% 0.2 19.8 50% -0.3 34.8 100% 2.4 28.0 67% 0.1 18.5 83% 1.9 43.3 60% 0.5 40.7 50% -0.1 38.8
Elo Predicts! 50% 0.7 11.3 60% 0.7 28.4 67% 1.4 25.0 67% 1.3 20.0 67% 1.8 30.2 60% 1.2 19.4 50% 1.4 26.8 50% 1.8 32.5 83% 0.5 31.5 67% 1.6 21.3 40% -0.6 35.8 20% -0.4 31.0 50% -0.8 33.8 100% 3.1 23.2 67% 0.3 11.8 67% 1.0 46.3 60% 0.7 32.2 33% 0.3 37.7
Hyperion 50% 0.5 13.8 50% -0.3 24.5 75% 1.2 28.0 60% 0.6 14.8 80% 1.3 34.2 75% 1.9 11.2 80% 1.5 29.6 80% 2.5 30.0 83% -0.3 35.7 100% 2.2 26.2 25% -0.7 34.2 50% -0.3 24.0 40% -1.1 39.4 100% 3.1 18.8 50% -0.7 19.7 80% 1.0 32.2 50% -0.5 20.2 60% -1.1 47.4
Massey Ratings 50% 0.3 19.5 33% -0.0 27.2 100% 1.3 29.2 75% 0.4 9.0 67% 0.5 41.5 100% 0.5 8.5 75% 1.2 40.2 67% 0.9 37.2 75% 1.7 31.8 50% 1.4 33.2 0% -1.0 67.5 50% 0.6 30.0 33% 0.5 34.2 100% 1.5 21.5 67% 0.7 12.8 75% 0.8 37.2 100% 0.9 10.5 50% 0.0 48.8