LEADERBOARD

After Round 21, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6

137 44.5362 44.54 24.8383 24.84 76.1111 76.1%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7

136 30.1495 30.15 25.1074 25.11 75.5556 75.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5

135 46.3588 46.36 25.3833 25.38 75.0000 75.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8

135 46.0100 46.01 24.8389 24.84 75.0000 75.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6

135 43.6060 43.61 24.3763 24.38 75.0000 75.0%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7

133 45.4709 45.47 24.9186 24.92 73.8889 73.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6

133 44.8559 44.86 24.9393 24.94 73.8889 73.9%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7

133 43.5816 43.58 24.8716 24.87 73.8889 73.9%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7

133 40.8366 40.84 25.3134 25.31 73.8889 73.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7

132 43.5030 43.50 25.3944 25.39 73.3333 73.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7

132 41.2723 41.27 25.3471 25.35 73.3333 73.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6

131 46.7283 46.73 25.3595 25.36 72.7778 72.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7

131 44.4082 44.41 25.9722 25.97 72.7778 72.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6

129 44.4209 44.42 25.4064 25.41 71.6667 71.7%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6

129 43.1114 43.11 24.9620 24.96 71.6667 71.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7

129 42.8351 42.84 25.1369 25.14 71.6667 71.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6

128 42.3680 42.37 25.0251 25.03 71.1111 71.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7

128 40.5746 40.57 26.2573 26.26 †3 72.3164 72.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

128 40.2758 40.28 25.8837 25.88 71.1111 71.1%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6

128 39.7678 39.77 25.0611 25.06 71.1111 71.1%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6

128 33.6929 33.69 26.0615 26.06 †1 71.5084 71.5%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6

127 40.5438 40.54 25.2928 25.29 70.5556 70.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6

127 34.6936 34.69 25.6033 25.60 70.5556 70.6%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7

125 41.3858 41.39 26.4068 26.41 69.4444 69.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5

124 39.7559 39.76 25.7000 25.70 68.8889 68.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6

124 39.4376 39.44 26.3167 26.32 68.8889 68.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7

124 37.6484 37.65 26.4778 26.48 68.8889 68.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6

123 37.4389 37.44 25.6217 25.62 68.3333 68.3%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6

123 36.9842 36.98 25.7953 25.80 †9 71.9298 71.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6

123 34.1714 34.17 26.6897 26.69 68.3333 68.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6

112 39.6990 39.70 26.1129 26.11 †25 72.2581 72.3%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 70% 2.1 25.4 65% 3.0 33.7 70% 3.2 28.2 75% 4.6 21.4 85% 8.8 28.8 85% 7.6 21.0 60% 1.6 26.4 80% 5.6 22.7 65% -1.6 28.2 75% 5.9 26.2 60% 0.7 23.6 85% 7.3 22.1 80% 3.7 20.4 85% 10.9 21.9 85% 6.1 18.9 95% 8.4 32.0 75% 6.8 22.5 75% 4.4 24.0
Holy Grail Ratings 65% 1.9 24.0 60% 2.5 34.3 70% 2.6 26.7 85% 3.4 20.1 90% 5.9 30.9 75% 4.3 23.7 65% 1.8 23.5 85% 4.1 21.0 60% 0.4 29.4 75% 3.2 26.6 70% 1.6 22.8 85% 4.0 21.4 65% 1.6 22.7 90% 6.8 24.1 90% 4.0 20.6 90% 5.2 32.9 80% 5.1 23.1 60% 1.9 23.9
ZaphBot 70% 4.6 21.9 65% 3.6 34.8 70% 3.3 30.3 80% 5.9 23.1 80% 7.7 30.1 85% 9.5 17.9 55% 0.6 26.4 80% 5.9 21.2 50% -3.2 32.5 80% 4.4 27.0 65% 1.8 23.8 80% 8.1 23.7 70% 0.7 23.2 85% 12.6 21.8 95% 8.4 17.9 100% 9.6 29.5 70% 6.5 26.4 70% 2.7 25.4
s10 65% 3.9 22.6 60% 3.1 34.4 65% 3.0 28.2 80% 5.3 20.0 85% 8.2 29.3 85% 7.9 20.1 65% 1.6 25.7 70% 4.8 23.3 55% -0.8 29.0 80% 5.2 26.6 60% 1.4 23.0 85% 8.1 22.4 80% 3.1 20.8 90% 11.5 21.7 90% 6.8 19.2 90% 7.9 32.4 80% 7.6 23.8 65% 3.3 24.6
Wheelo Ratings 70% 3.0 21.6 55% 2.5 33.7 70% 2.8 28.2 75% 4.6 20.5 85% 8.5 28.0 90% 8.4 20.0 65% 0.9 26.7 70% 4.6 23.6 60% -0.5 28.0 80% 5.1 24.8 60% 0.9 23.4 85% 7.9 21.5 75% 2.3 20.4 90% 10.9 21.8 85% 6.1 18.7 90% 8.0 31.0 80% 7.9 22.9 65% 3.4 24.0
Punters 65% 3.2 23.1 60% 2.4 35.0 70% 3.1 29.0 75% 4.6 21.8 85% 8.3 30.4 90% 9.7 20.2 70% 1.9 25.0 75% 4.9 23.1 60% -1.1 29.8 80% 5.2 26.3 60% 1.2 23.5 80% 7.4 22.3 70% 2.1 21.8 85% 11.7 19.7 80% 6.1 18.6 95% 9.0 29.4 75% 7.2 24.6 55% 3.9 24.8
AFLalytics 65% 3.0 23.9 60% 2.8 34.0 65% 3.2 27.0 75% 4.3 21.0 85% 8.0 30.3 80% 7.2 22.3 70% 2.5 25.4 70% 4.0 23.9 70% 0.8 27.4 85% 5.5 27.2 55% 2.3 22.6 85% 8.1 20.7 70% 2.9 20.7 90% 11.0 22.1 80% 6.2 19.8 90% 7.3 33.1 80% 8.0 22.7 55% 2.7 24.9
Aggregate 65% 3.7 22.6 55% 3.1 34.8 70% 3.3 28.0 80% 4.9 20.0 85% 7.7 29.7 80% 7.5 20.2 65% 1.6 24.9 70% 4.8 23.0 55% -1.0 30.0 80% 4.9 26.1 65% 1.8 22.6 85% 7.4 22.0 80% 2.7 21.8 85% 11.0 21.5 90% 6.5 19.5 85% 7.3 32.8 75% 7.1 23.9 60% 2.9 24.4
Glicko Ratings 70% 2.9 24.2 60% 2.7 34.4 65% 3.4 28.0 70% 5.1 20.0 85% 6.8 30.3 85% 7.4 20.5 65% 1.3 26.3 75% 3.5 24.8 55% -0.0 27.8 75% 4.4 27.9 60% 0.8 22.9 85% 7.0 24.2 80% 3.2 20.6 90% 10.7 22.6 80% 6.2 19.0 90% 7.4 32.5 80% 7.0 23.9 60% 1.9 25.7
Informed Stats 70% 4.8 22.6 60% 3.6 36.1 65% 4.3 29.6 75% 4.7 21.6 85% 7.8 26.6 85% 7.2 16.1 65% -0.1 26.7 75% 5.3 22.1 50% -4.0 34.2 75% 6.1 25.9 60% 0.5 23.9 85% 7.8 23.9 70% 1.5 23.0 90% 13.3 20.1 85% 6.0 22.4 85% 7.1 33.5 80% 7.8 24.6 60% 3.4 24.0
What Snoo Thinks 70% 2.4 24.1 65% 1.9 36.3 80% 5.4 24.0 70% 4.4 20.4 85% 7.6 31.8 75% 6.1 24.8 60% 0.9 24.9 60% 3.5 25.5 55% 0.4 28.5 70% 3.4 28.0 60% 0.5 23.1 85% 7.4 20.9 75% 2.7 23.1 80% 10.2 23.1 95% 7.2 18.4 85% 7.2 32.7 75% 7.8 23.5 75% 3.5 23.4
Don't Blame the Data 65% 4.6 23.0 55% 3.7 34.4 70% 3.5 27.8 80% 5.6 20.3 85% 9.0 29.1 75% 7.5 22.2 65% 1.6 24.4 65% 4.7 24.0 55% -1.1 29.3 75% 4.3 27.5 60% 0.1 23.7 85% 8.7 23.7 80% 3.2 22.1 85% 12.6 21.8 90% 7.9 19.2 85% 7.2 32.8 75% 7.7 25.1 60% 2.6 26.2
The Wooden Finger 70% 3.7 24.1 55% 2.6 36.6 70% 4.1 29.4 85% 6.0 20.7 85% 8.2 29.3 80% 7.3 20.1 60% 0.7 25.6 70% 5.9 21.6 50% -2.1 31.9 75% 4.3 28.0 65% 1.7 23.1 85% 8.3 22.9 75% 2.5 26.2 90% 11.7 20.3 90% 7.5 18.2 75% 6.8 36.0 80% 7.6 25.4 50% 2.0 27.9
Matter of Stats 65% 4.5 22.9 60% 3.3 34.0 70% 3.4 27.0 80% 5.7 19.6 80% 7.5 30.6 80% 7.3 19.8 65% 1.6 25.7 75% 4.8 23.1 50% -1.7 31.3 75% 5.2 28.6 60% 0.4 23.5 80% 7.6 25.6 60% 2.9 21.9 85% 11.3 19.2 85% 7.0 20.0 95% 7.8 33.8 70% 7.2 24.8 55% 3.0 26.0
Winnable 60% 3.8 22.4 60% 2.3 33.6 55% 1.8 28.5 80% 5.1 20.0 85% 8.0 30.0 85% 7.1 21.8 65% 2.4 24.3 70% 4.8 23.7 50% -0.0 28.4 80% 5.2 26.4 55% 1.0 23.8 85% 8.6 20.3 65% 3.3 20.3 90% 10.1 25.5 70% 5.5 21.0 95% 7.2 33.5 80% 7.5 22.4 60% 2.5 23.7
footycharts 65% 2.9 23.5 55% 2.6 35.0 70% 4.6 27.4 75% 4.3 21.0 85% 7.6 30.3 80% 8.4 19.7 75% 2.4 24.2 75% 5.7 22.2 50% -0.6 29.6 75% 4.7 28.2 60% 2.2 22.7 85% 8.4 19.1 65% 0.9 23.4 90% 10.3 23.6 85% 6.2 19.9 85% 7.4 32.2 80% 6.6 23.5 35% 1.2 26.9
Stattraction 65% 3.3 23.1 55% 2.8 36.0 70% 2.9 29.5 85% 5.8 18.5 85% 7.6 29.5 80% 7.0 19.7 60% 0.9 23.4 70% 4.2 24.8 50% -1.2 30.2 70% 4.4 26.5 70% 2.5 21.8 75% 7.1 22.2 65% 3.1 22.6 85% 11.0 21.0 90% 7.9 18.2 75% 6.4 34.0 70% 6.7 24.1 60% 2.4 25.4
The Cruncher 68% 3.9 26.3 55% 1.6 36.3 60% 0.8 29.9 74% 4.5 21.2 85% 7.8 29.8 85% 7.6 21.2 59% -0.0 30.0 60% 3.2 26.0 55% -1.9 28.6 75% 4.8 26.4 60% 0.5 23.7 85% 7.7 23.5 80% 3.3 22.4 90% 11.6 21.4 84% 6.3 20.8 80% 7.7 33.5 80% 7.6 26.4 65% 4.1 25.3
AFL Lab 60% 3.9 25.2 55% 3.3 34.3 65% 2.9 30.1 75% 4.6 20.4 85% 7.6 29.1 75% 4.6 24.9 65% 2.8 24.2 70% 4.7 22.8 50% -1.4 29.5 80% 5.6 25.6 65% 2.7 23.2 85% 6.9 22.9 75% 2.7 22.4 85% 10.3 23.6 80% 6.0 20.5 80% 5.9 34.9 75% 6.3 24.7 55% 1.2 27.7
PlusSixOne 65% 2.2 23.6 70% 3.0 34.0 65% 3.3 27.6 70% 3.9 20.8 85% 8.6 26.7 90% 8.5 17.7 55% 0.6 26.2 75% 6.2 21.0 45% -2.2 31.7 75% 4.8 25.2 55% 1.9 24.0 70% 5.3 21.7 60% 1.4 23.2 90% 10.1 21.9 85% 6.8 20.0 85% 7.2 33.1 75% 6.4 25.8 65% 1.6 26.9
Cheap Stats 60% 2.7 25.1 55% 2.3 35.5 70% 3.0 26.6 80% 3.1 21.9 80% 5.6 33.6 84% 7.1 22.6 63% 1.5 27.3 65% 3.6 24.7 45% -1.9 31.4 75% 3.2 28.6 55% 1.6 22.4 85% 4.9 23.1 70% 3.1 22.6 80% 8.6 22.2 85% 4.7 20.1 85% 5.9 32.1 80% 6.0 25.1 70% 2.4 23.9
HBin 70% 3.5 23.7 60% 3.6 33.8 65% 2.1 30.2 75% 5.5 19.0 85% 6.3 32.2 80% 6.9 21.7 55% 0.4 25.1 75% 6.5 22.7 55% -3.0 30.5 75% 4.8 26.7 55% 0.6 23.5 75% 7.4 22.5 70% 1.5 22.3 85% 12.4 22.6 85% 7.2 19.8 80% 6.5 31.8 70% 5.6 24.9 55% 3.4 22.3
The Footycast 60% 3.0 23.4 60% 2.7 34.8 70% 3.0 28.7 75% 4.2 20.3 85% 6.6 30.1 85% 6.3 21.7 60% 1.1 26.3 75% 3.9 23.7 40% -1.9 31.5 75% 3.8 27.2 65% 2.5 21.8 85% 5.1 20.8 65% 1.2 22.6 85% 9.4 22.9 85% 5.3 21.0 75% 5.5 34.5 75% 5.8 23.8 50% 1.8 25.8
In The Game 65% 4.1 25.6 60% 2.4 35.8 55% 0.3 29.1 80% 5.4 21.0 85% 8.1 30.5 70% 6.7 22.5 55% 0.4 27.2 65% 4.1 24.2 60% -4.3 32.5 70% 5.4 23.9 55% 0.8 25.1 80% 8.9 25.6 65% 1.4 23.2 85% 12.2 19.2 75% 7.1 22.5 90% 10.9 31.1 75% 5.0 31.2 60% 3.9 25.3
Live Ladders 60% 3.0 24.8 45% 3.0 34.5 60% 4.0 25.0 70% 4.0 19.9 85% 7.5 31.9 75% 6.2 24.4 65% 2.8 23.6 60% 3.3 26.5 65% 1.1 28.4 65% 4.4 27.1 65% 2.3 22.6 90% 6.7 20.9 70% 2.4 22.4 85% 9.3 25.8 75% 5.2 21.8 80% 6.0 33.5 80% 6.7 24.2 45% 1.7 25.3
Graft 60% 3.0 27.8 50% 2.9 35.9 70% 3.7 31.6 75% 4.5 22.6 85% 6.8 31.4 80% 6.9 17.6 55% 1.3 25.1 60% 3.8 24.2 55% 0.1 30.3 70% 4.1 27.6 65% 2.8 23.9 80% 6.5 21.5 70% 1.7 25.5 85% 10.1 19.9 90% 5.5 22.1 75% 6.1 33.5 70% 6.9 25.8 45% 2.0 27.4
Elo Predicts! 60% 3.7 23.6 60% 2.9 36.4 65% 1.7 28.6 70% 5.0 21.4 75% 7.1 29.1 75% 6.6 21.4 55% 1.0 24.9 65% 3.9 27.1 60% -1.9 32.6 75% 4.0 24.8 60% 1.5 23.5 75% 6.1 28.1 70% 1.5 24.5 90% 11.0 22.6 85% 6.2 19.1 80% 6.1 33.1 75% 7.2 28.4 45% 1.6 27.6
Squiggle 65% 2.4 23.5 55% 3.0 34.5 50% 2.5 28.5 70% 4.2 20.9 85% 5.8 32.0 80% 6.8 21.9 55% 1.2 25.9 70% 3.8 24.1 50% 0.1 27.7 75% 4.7 27.0 55% 1.3 24.1 85% 7.0 21.9 65% 1.9 21.7 85% 10.2 23.1 75% 5.4 20.0 85% 6.5 34.2 75% 6.7 24.7 50% 1.6 25.3
Hyperion 67% 3.0 25.9 53% 2.7 33.8 67% 1.7 31.9 68% 3.7 19.7 84% 7.8 29.3 84% 9.1 18.6 68% 1.3 26.9 68% 4.8 22.8 60% -2.8 32.6 79% 5.0 26.3 53% 1.0 23.8 84% 6.5 25.5 68% 1.6 24.2 89% 11.2 19.1 80% 5.4 21.1 79% 5.6 30.8 79% 5.8 21.9 63% 0.6 30.0
AFL Scorigami 65% 3.6 24.6 50% -0.0 37.1 75% 3.3 26.7 75% 3.0 21.6 75% 6.3 32.5 75% 7.0 23.6 55% -0.8 28.8 60% 5.1 23.8 50% -4.4 31.3 70% 4.1 27.9 65% 1.6 23.8 85% 6.9 23.1 75% 2.7 22.4 85% 10.2 25.0 75% 4.9 22.6 70% 5.2 35.3 70% 6.2 25.7 55% 3.2 24.8
Massey Ratings 62% 3.5 26.6 50% 2.2 36.7 71% 2.3 31.6 78% 4.8 19.8 82% 6.6 29.3 82% 6.6 21.1 61% 0.9 27.4 76% 4.0 23.3 50% -2.4 31.6 72% 4.2 28.9 62% 2.0 22.0 88% 8.3 25.8 65% 3.4 21.1 82% 10.6 20.4 88% 6.5 22.1 89% 6.2 31.4 81% 7.8 22.6 61% 1.9 26.8