Hawthorn v Port Adelaide
2026-04-18 16:15:00 +10:00
Docklands

13.11

89

13.8

86

Hawthorn won by 3 points

IN

McCabe

Dear

Gunston

Chol

OUT

IN

Visentini

Moraes

Lukosius

Watkins

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		89%	41 points	✓	37.8	0.83
Aggregate		86%	39 points	✓	35.5	0.78
		95%	49 points	✓	46.0	0.93
		95%	44 points	✓	41.1	0.92
		94%	48 points	✓	44.6	0.92
		94%	55 points	✓	52.0	0.91
		91%	47 points	✓	44.0	0.87
		91%	44 points	✓	41.4	0.86
		90%	48 points	✓	44.7	0.85
		90%	40 points	✓	36.8	0.84
		90%	43 points	✓	39.6	0.84
Punters		89%	34 points	✓	31.3	0.82
		88%	43 points	✓	40.0	0.82
		88%	42 points	✓	38.8	0.82
		87%	42 points	✓	38.8	0.80
		87%	35 points	✓	32.0	0.80
		87%	39 points	✓	36.0	0.80
		87%	38 points	✓	34.5	0.79
		86%	34 points	✓	31.2	0.78
		86%	53 points	✓	50.0	0.77
		85%	34 points	✓	31.5	0.76
		84%	31 points	✓	27.9	0.76
		84%	39 points	✓	35.6	0.75
		83%	17 points	✓	14.0	0.73
		82%	34 points	✓	30.8	0.72
		82%	29 points	✓	25.5	0.71
		81%	30 points	✓	27.4	0.69
		78%	36 points	✓	33.0	0.64
		77%	24 points	✓	21.0	0.63
		76%	30 points	✓	26.6	0.60
		72%	36 points	✓	33.3	0.53

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.